John Smoltz has a simple formula for postseason success

The Braves legend and MLB Hall of Fame member has a simple strategy for the postseason

The 2021 Atlanta Braves lost their best player in midseason, rebuilt their entire outfield at the trade deadline, and were considered a "weak" division winner with only 88 regular season wins, and yet went on to capture the 2021 World Season. Conversely, the juggernaut that were the 2022 (101 wins) and 2023 Braves (104 games) were eliminated from those postseasons in the NLDS, winning one game each October. 

It turns out, only the 2021 Braves followed the formula. 

Braves legend and baseball Hall of Famer John Smoltz has a simple formula for postseason success, one he shared with Braves Today: 

"I maintain this simple philosophy that's difficult (for opposing teams) to navigate: Three hot hitters, three hot starting pitchers, and three hot relievers. They don't have to be the same throughout the year. But if you have that combination in your lineup, one-third of your lineup, if you've got three guys going well, it's going to be tough to beat. If you have three-fifths of your rotation going well, it's going to be tough to beat. And three bullpen arms, it's going to be very tough to beat.

Is it really that easy? 

Three hot hitters, three hot starting pitchers, and three hot relievers.

Let's look back at recent World Champions to see if this is really all it takes. 

2023 Texas Rangers

© Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Hitters:  Adolis Garcia (.323 w/ 8 HRs), Corey Seager (.318 w/ 6 HRs), Josh Jung (.308 w/ 3 HRs)

Starters: Nathan Eovaldi (36.2 IP, 2.95 ERA), Jordan Montgomery (31.0 IP, 2.90 ERA), no third starter (Max Scherzer had a 6.52 ERA in three postseason starts)  

Relievers: Jose Leclerc (13.2 IP, 4 saves), Aroldis Chapman (8.0 IP, 2.25 ERA), Josh Sborz (12.0 IP, 0.75 ERA). 

Close! John acknowledged the starters, saying: "They didn't have three. They had two and a half (starters) maybe at times, but they navigated an incredible journey to win a championship that nobody saw coming."

If we give him credit for Andrew Heaney as the half (five postseason appearances, three starts), then this theory's starting to have legs. 

2022 Houston Astros

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Hitters: Jeremy Pena (.345, 4 HRs), Alex Bregman (.294, 3 HRs, 11 RBIs), Yuli Gurriel (.341 average) 

Starters: Framber Valdez (25.0 IP, 1.44 ERA), Cristian Javier (15.1 IP, 0.71 ERA), Justin Verlander (maybe? 20.0 IP, 5.85 ERA)

Relievers: Bryan Abreu (11.1 IP, 0 ERs), Ryan Pressley (11.0 IP, 0 ERs), Rafael Montero (9.1 IP, 2 ERs), Hector Neris (6.0 IP, 1 ER). 

Okay, so two starters but four relievers, and there's your three hitters. (Also, weirdly, Yordan Alvarez had 14 RBIs that season but a batting average under .200. Baseball doesn't always make sense) 

2021 Atlanta Braves

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Hitters: Eddie Rosario (.383, 3 HRs), Freddie Freeman (.304, 5 HRs), Austin Riley (.277, 2 HRs), Jorge Soler (.242, 3 HRs), Ozzie Albies (.254, 12 runs scored)

Starters: Max Fried (27.2 IP, 4.23 ERA), Ian Anderson (17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA), Charlie Morton (16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA)

Relievers: Tyler Matzek (15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 3 wins, 8 holds), Will Smith (11.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 wins, 6 saves), AJ Minter (12.0 IP, 3.00 ERA)

Uh, yeah. This fits. 

Did John Smoltz really crack the code? 

It appears so. If you have three hot hitters, three hot starters, and three hot relievers, that's a winning formula for the postseason. 

For the rest of Smoltz' wisdom, the full conversation is available on the Braves Today Youtube page. 

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