Braves Logical Next Step After Diamondbacks Sign SP Corbin Burnes

An overnight free agent signing might have made the Atlanta Braves' next offseason move clearer. The Arizona Diamondbacks signed top free agent righty Corbin Burnes to a six-year, $210 million deal. According to Jon Heyman, he also has an opt-out after two years.

Breaking: Corbin Burnes to Diamondbacks, $210M, 6 years. opt out after 2 years.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 28, 2024

Burnes now has the highest annual price tag in Arizona ($35 million). This could incline the Diamondbacks to trade away the arm with the second-highest price tag, left-hander Jordan Montgomery ($22.5 million).

The Diamondbacks have been wanting to trade Montgomery, and the Braves step in to take him off their hands.

Two notable offseason predictions have sent Montgomery to the Braves. In early November, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden predicted the Braves would acquire him in exchange for two minor-league pitchers. There were no details on who. However, the second prediction was more specific. Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer had the Braves trading Ian Anderson for Montgomery.

Both deals involve the Diamondbacks retaining part of his salary. This is because ESPN's Jeff Passan reported the Diamondbacks are "willing to eat some money" to get Montgomery out of Arizona.

This puts the Braves in a similar position in late December as last year when they acquired Chris Sale. The Red Sox retained a large portion of the struggling lefty’s salary to get the deal done.

Montgomery would provide the Braves rotation with a left-handed veteran to fill the stop left by Max Fried signing with the Yankees. He’s only two years older than Fried at 32 years old and also has World Series championship experience. He won with the Texas Rangers in 2023.

The Braves should be able to buy lower because of his down year in 2024. He finished the season with an abysmal 6.23 ERA in 25 appearances (21 starts) with the DBacks. While it’s a shaky statistic, he’s got the track record to make it a worthy dice roll.

In his previous two seasons, he had a 3.48 ERA across 94 starts. For the advanced stat guys, he had a 120 ERA+, so he was an above-average pitcher during that time. He also had strong postseason numbers with a 2.63 ERA across 37 2/3 innings pitched. His standout performance came in the ALCS against the Houston Astros. Montgomery made three appearances, including a relief appearance in Game 7, and had a 1.29 ERA in 14 innings pitched.

It would be a solid buy-low acquisition with a lot of upside. If the Diamondbacks retain the portion of salary they’re expected to, at the worst, he’s a one-year rental with a price tag below $20 million.

Now, if either of the aforementioned predictions were to come true, the two minor league pitchers would be the most ideal. Anderson is still only 26 years old and provides another experienced option for the rotation, or bullpen, within the organization. No matter who the main starting rotation is, it is guaranteed that a team will need more than five starters in a season.

Bowden’s wording of “two minor league pitchers” instead of using the word “prospects” also stands out. They wouldn’t be giving up top young talent.

Should the Braves acquire Montgomery, the rotation would look like this by midseason:

Chris Sale
Spencer Strider
Jordan Montgomery
Spencer Schwellenbach
Reynaldo López

The exact order can be debated, but it’s more than likely these five guys in this scenario. Before Stider returns, Grant Holmes is an option and if Anderson isn’t traded, he’s an option as well.