Could Ronald Acuña Jr actually win the National League MVP?

Ronald Acuña Jr is having an absolutely ridiculous season batting leadoff for Atlanta, leading MLB in several offensive categories. He's been commonly referred to as the NL MVP favorite, but what's his case for the award and who (and how close) are his competitors?

(All odds & stats prior to Saturday's games. Bold season totals indicate player led league. Italic season totals indicate player led all major leagues.)

OF Ronald Acuña Jr, Atlanta

2023 stats: 114G, .337/.420/.580 (1.000 OPS) w/ 102 Rs, 70 RBIs, 26 HRs, 53 SBs.

Ronald Acuña Jr is, in fact, the NL MVP favorite, sitting at -550 by FanDuel and in the same range on many other popular books.

He's been absolutely dynamic as the leadoff hitter for the Braves, powering Atlanta to the best 1st inning offense in baseball. Atlanta's 112 runs in the first inning are the best in baseball by a healthy margin, and so many of the Braves' victories this season have started with a crooked number being hung on the board in the 1st inning.

1B Freddie Freeman, Dodgers

2023 stats: 115G, .334/.420/.597 (1.017 OPS) w/ 101 Rs, 83 RBIs, 23 HRs, 16 SBs

Odds: +400 (FanDuel)

As much as Atlanta Braves fans don't want to think about it, former 1st baseman Freddie Freeman has been just as good as advertised in 2023 for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Leading the NL in plate appearances (528) and all of baseball in hits (158) and doubles (43), Freeman's only twenty-two points of batting average away from Miami's Luis Arraez (.366) while putting up significantly more value from a slugging and defensive perspective.

Freeman's signed for four more seasons after this one, taking him through his age 37 year, for a total of $162M over six seasons.

1B Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves

2023 stats: 114G, .267/.376/.601 (.977 OPS) w/ 88Rs, 101 RBIs, 40 HRs, 1 SB

Odds: +3200 (FanDuel)

But as good as Freddie Freeman's been for the Dodgers, many Braves fans are perfectly happy with the player they ended up getting instead of Freeman, Matt Olson.

Leading all of baseball in RBIs and tied with Shohei Ohtani for the most homeruns in MLB, Olson has settled in nicely for the Braves in his 2nd season in Atlanta. A native of Atlanta who went to nearby Parkview High School, Olson returned to Atlanta before the 2022 season when the Braves traded four players to the Oakland A's for him, immediately signing him to a 8-year, $168M contract that will take him through his age 35 season, with a 2030 club option valued at $20M.

RF Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

2023 stats: 110G, .286/.388/.579 (.967 OPS) w/ 94Rs, 78 RBIs, 31 HRs, 8 SBs

Odds: +3200 (FanDuel)

The 2018 AL MVP, now in his 4th season in Los Angeles after they absolutely fleeced the Boston Red Sox in a trade, isn't leading the league in any specific category but is in top ten in a LOT of categories. The versatile outfielder has played at 2B and SS in addition to his usual right field duties, and has been one of the catalysts of this Los Angeles offense (along with Freeman) to propel them into a 7.5 game lead in the NL West.

What does Ronald Acuña Jr need to do to secure the NL MVP award?

Acuña is on pace for 75 stolen bases, which would be the highest single-season total since José Reyes stole 78 in 78 for the New York Mets. But I think the key here is the homeruns - Ronald's on pace for only 37, and if he ends up being short of that 40/40 season (which has only happened four times in MLB history), it opens the door for someone else to split the vote with Ronald.

I still think he'd win the award at his current pace, but the vote might be closer than we'd like it to be. Assuming everything else stays the same, one simple power binge might lock this up for Ronald Acuña Jr.

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