Preseason Dark Horses for Each Major 2026 MLB Award Race

The MVP, Cy Young and Rookie of the Year races all have distinguished favorites to take home hardware this year. But there are other worthy candidates.

Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has the sort of diverse skill set that could win him an MVP award. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Even though a chill is still in the air for much of the U.S., baseball—and the spring—is right around the corner. Pitchers and catchers will report to some clubs as soon as Feb. 10, meaning it’s nearly time to get back into the swing—pun very intended—of things. 

That also means it’s never too early to survey the landscape of the award races set to be run by baseball’s best in 2026. From the MVP awards, dominated in recent years by Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, to the Cy Youngs, where Tarik Skubal has been a familiar face and Paul Skenes a new one, to the Rookies of the Year, where fresh faces and personalities are guaranteed to burst onto the scene, there are no shortage of storylines. 

But favorites for each award aside, who are the early candidates flying under the radar?

Let’s take a look at a few dark-horse candidates for each award. 

American League MVP 

The favorite: Aaron Judge 

It will be difficult to unseat Judge, who sports a .311/.439/.677 slash line with 210 home runs while winning three AL MVPs in the last four seasons.

The dark horses

Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians 

José Ramírez has finished in the top five of AL MVP voting six times, including each of the last two years. | David Richard-Imagn Images

Ramirez might just be the most underappreciated star in baseball. Since 2017—his first All-Star campaign—only Judge and Francisco Lindor have been worth more than the Guardians star’s 51 Wins Above Replacement. 

Ramirez’s superpower is his ability to affect games in so many different ways. He hit .282 last season in a year in which the league-wide batting average was .245. He’s belted 30-plus home runs four times in his 13-year career. He swiped a career-best 44 bases in 2025. Plus, he routinely passes both the eye and analytics tests as a defender at third base. 

Ramirez should garner consideration for the award if he helps lead Cleveland to the postseason for the third straight year in ‘26. 

Julio Rodriguez, OF, Mariners

Rodriguez is a rare, five-tool talent. He was the only player in MLB to rank in at least the 80th percentile in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, bat speed, sprint speed and arm strength in 2025, which gives a sense of how gifted he is. He was worth 11 Outs Above Average in ‘25, seventh among all center fielders. 

Rodriguez has already joined the 30-home run, 30-stolen base club, so it’s not hard to envision a 40-40 campaign if he puts it all together. Rodriguez’s one bugaboo? He owns a career .737 OPS in the first half compared to a .902 mark in the second half. 

If he gets off to a fast start for the Mariners in ‘26, look out. 

Gunnar Henderson, SS, Orioles 

Henderson is coming off of his worst season in the big leagues, both at the plate and in the field. But if you’re doubting his ability to win this award, look no further in the past than 2024, his second full season in the big leagues. 

That year, Henderson ranked among the top 10 AL hitters in hits, runs scored, home runs, walks and OPS while being worth 9.1 WAR, fourth in MLB. He finished fourth in the MVP vote. 

Henderson could rebound in a big way batting in the heart of a powerful Orioles lineup in ‘26. 

National League MVP

The favorite: Shohei Ohtani

Ohtani, who’s won three straight MVP awards and back-to-back in the National League, will always have a leg up on the competition given that he’s the only man in baseball with two job descriptions. 

The dark horses

Bryce Harper, 1B, Phillies 

Bryce Harper already has two MVP awards to his name, but he didn’t receive a single vote last year while batting .261 with 27 home runs. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Want to motivate a superstar athlete? Insinuate that his best days are behind him. That’s more or less what Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski did when he candidly discussed Harper’s down 2025 season while speaking to reporters in October. 

“He’s still a quality player. He’s still an All-Star-caliber player. He didn’t have an elite season like he has had in the past,” Dombrowski said at the time. “And I guess we only find out if he becomes elite or he continues to be good. … Can he rise to the next level again? I don’t really know that answer. He’s the one that will dictate that more than anything else.”

Harper and Dombrowski cleared the air in November, but the Phillies star told The Athletic that he was upset by Dombrowski’s comments. Harper is now 33 and five years removed from winning his last NL MVP. But the bat remains potent, he’s reinvented himself as a solid defensive first baseman and now has all the motivation he needs to bounce back in a big way in ’26. 

Elly De La Cruz, SS, Reds 

Blazing fast with a prodigious power bat, a cannon for an arm and elite range at shortstop, De La Cruz, already one of the most electrifying players in baseball, possesses the tools to one day post an MVP-caliber season. 

Don’t believe us? Just listen to what his manager, Terry Francona, said about the Reds star at the 2025 winter meetings. 

“He's 23 years old and if we can just get him to be more consistent, then we are looking at the best player in baseball,” Francona said. 

Two areas that could help De La Cruz take the next step? Continue to cut down on the strikeouts (he’s lowered his strikeout rate in each of the last two seasons) and drive the ball more (his 51.3% groundball rate was the fifth-highest in MLB in 2025). 

Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks 

Carroll, 25, was one of the most unique hitters in baseball this past season. Thanks to a career-high 31 homers, Carroll ranked sixth in MLB in extra-base hits, behind only big bashers Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, Cal Raleigh, Ohtani and Judge. But of the top-10 leaders in the stat, only Carroll racked up at least 30 doubles, 10 triples and 30 homers. 

Combine Carroll’s slugging prowess with elite wheels—the second-most stolen bases since 2023—and a strong glove—he’s led all right fielders in Outs Above Average the last two seasons—and voilà, you have yourself an MVP candidate. 

He has finished fifth (2021) and sixth (2025) in the NL MVP vote in his career. Could ‘26 be the year he claims the award for the first time? 

American League Cy Young 

The favorite: Tarik Skubal 

Simply put, Skubal has been the best pitcher in baseball the last two seasons, during which he ranks first in ERA and strikeouts while winning back-to-back Cy Young awards. 

The dark horses

Hunter Brown, SP, Astros 

Hunter Brown finished third in AL Cy Young voting last year. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

Brown throws as many as six different pitches, giving him a variety of ways to get hitters out. Only three starting pitchers ranked inside the top 10 in strikeout rate and groundball rate in 2025—Garret Crochet, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Brown. 

It’s no wonder, then, that opposing batters hit just .200 against him in 2025, fifth in the AL. Brown turned himself into a top-shelf starter in ’25 while playing third wheel to the Skubal-Crochet duel for the Cy Young. In ‘26, the Astros hurler could claim that award for himself. 

Bryan Woo, SP, Mariners 

Powered by easy mechanics, Woo almost exclusively throws hard stuff—73% of his offerings were either a four-seam fastball or a sinker in 2025. No other starter threw those offerings in tandem as much as Woo. 

And just one pitcher, Skubal, threw more pitches in the strike zone than Woo did. Woo’s delivery and lower-than-usual release point creates deception—and makes his mid-90s heater appear even faster than it is, helping the Mariners ace generate whiffs even while living in the zone. 

The 2025 results—a .198 opponent batting average and the fifth-largest difference between strikeout and walk rate—weren’t surprising. Should Woo continue to become more comfortable in utilizing his breaking pitches, he could make a run at the Cy Young. 

Dylan Cease, SP, Blue Jays 

Dylan Cease is a pitching paradox. The 30-year-old righthander posted the third-highest strikeout and walk rates among starters in 2025. Since becoming a full-time starter in ’21, Cease leads the majors in strikeouts, walks and wild pitches. 

Cease’s live-by-the-sword, die-by-the-sword approach has made him baseball’s version of Jekyll and Hyde on the mound, but there’s no denying that the Blue Jays hurler has some of the best raw stuff in the game. 

Cease, who has previously finished second and fourth in Cy Young votes, could challenge for the award once again in his new home in Toronto. 

National League Cy Young 

The favorite: Paul Skenes 

Skenes, who owns a 1.96 ERA and 386 strikeouts in 320 ⅔ career innings, is one of just eight pitchers to ever win the ROY and Cy Young awards in their respective careers. 

The dark horses

Spencer Strider, SP, Braves 

Spencer Strider led the majors with 281 strikeouts in 2023. | Brad Mills-Imagn Images

Elbow surgery cut short Strider’s 2024 and ’25 seasons. But his All-Star ’23 campaign was a glimpse into what he’s capable of. Relying heavily on his deadly fastball-slider combo, Strider missed bats at a staggering rate, as evidenced by his MLB-leading 36.8% strikeout rate and 18.9% swinging strike rate. 

When healthy, Strider’s ERA has outpaced his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), mostly due to the hitter-friendly Truist Park and a below-average Braves defense. Should Strider stay healthy and get some help from Atlanta’s defense, he could bounce back and win the first Cy Young award of his career. 

Jacob Misiorowski, SP, Brewers 

Misiorowski’s reliance on a hard-throwing approach—his fastball averages 99.3 mph and his slider clocks in at 94.1—could make him an injury risk throughout his career, but also gives him some of the nastiest stuff in MLB. 

He was the first big leaguer since 1900 to have more wins than hits allowed in the first two starts of a career. While Misiorowski’s struggles with command could result in some up-and-down campaigns, his elite bat-missing ability gives him as much upside as any starter in the game and a chance to take a Skenes-like leap in year two. 

Shohei Ohtani, SP, Dodgers 

Given the Dodgers’ surplus of starters, there’s no need to overuse Ohtani as a pitcher. For that reason, he may not see as many starts as the favorites for the NL Cy Young. But Ohtani has flirted with winning this award before. 

During the 2022 season—his last full season as a starter—Ohtani led the AL in strikeout rate and ranked inside the top five in wins, ERA, FIP, swinging strike rate and WAR. He finished fourth in the Cy Young vote. 

For the man who has seemingly accomplished everything in MLB, the Cy Young is the one goal Ohtani hasn’t achieved. He may be a long shot, but doubt Ohtani at your own risk. 

American League Rookie of the Year

The favorite: Trey Yesavage 

Trey Yesavage burst onto the scene by striking out 39 hitters with a 3.58 ERA in 27 2/3 postseason innings for the Blue Jays. | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Yesavage has made just eight career starts (regular and postseason), but his dazzling playoff performance has him in the driver’s seat to take home this award. 

The dark horses

Carter Jensen, C, Royals 

Jensen, a catcher and the top prospect in the Royals’ farm system, still doesn’t have the clearest path to at-bats in the majors, given that the club in November agreed to a two-year deal with longtime backstop Salvador Perez. 

But the Royals in recent years have looked for more opportunities to get Perez, who will be 36 in May, off his feet by slotting him in at first base or designated hitter. That opens the door for Jensen, who slashed .290/.377/.501 in 111 games between Double and Triple-A, then followed that up by posting a .941 OPS in a brief 20-game stint in the majors in 2025. 

Add in the fact that he’s a capable pitch framer and possesses an above-average arm, and the ingredients are there for an AL ROY campaign. 

Connelly Early, SP, Red Sox 

Early, a September call-up last season, tied the Red Sox record with 11 strikeouts in his MLB debut against the A’s, then followed it up by holding his own in the race for the postseason and an October start against the Yankees. 

Early is something of an anomaly in the age of high-velocity—his fastball velocity (93.4 mph) sat in just the 39th percentile. But don’t be fooled, for he has plenty of weapons to attack hitters with. 

Early’s four-seamer is deceptively faster because of his close release point to home plate, and he supplements his heater with a curveball, changeup, sinker, slider and sweeper. He is able to generate outs via the strikeout and on the ground, a skillset that could help him make a run at ROY. 

Chase DeLauter, OF, Guardians 

Guardians outfielders were worth -5.3 Wins Above Replacement last year—28th in the majors—and just one player from that bunch, Steven Kwan, is definitively ticketed for a starting role in left field. 

That leaves open spots in center and right field, where DeLauter, the Guardians’ second-ranked prospect, just so happens to excel. 

The 6’3”, 235-pound DeLauter combines an ability to hit for both power and average with a patient eye at the plate—a .384 OBP in three minor league seasons. Cleveland thought highly enough of DeLauter that they inserted him into the lineup for his MLB debut in a must-win playoff game. Now he’ll get a chance to make a full-time impact in the big leagues. 

National League Rookie of the Year 

The favorite: Nolan McLean 

McLean’s 2.06 ERA in eight starts in the middle of a postseason chase in ’25 has the Mets’ budding ace primed to capture this award in ’26. 

The dark horses

Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates 

Griffin, 19, has played just 122 games in the minors between Single and Double-A, but the talent level was obvious despite the limited experience. He slashed .333/.415/.527 while swiping 65 bases. 

Baseball’s top prospect might be a long shot to break camp with the Pirates, but if he does there’s a chance his five-tool talent helps him more easily adjust to life in the majors than other youngsters. 

And even if he doesn’t, the Pirates may be hard-pressed to keep him away from the big leagues for long, meaning he could—at some point—make enough of an impact to win this award. 

Moises Ballesteros, C/DH, Cubs 

At 21 years old, Ballesteros, after impressing in Triple-A for much of last season, found himself batting cleanup when injuries struck Chicago’s outfield in September. 

“We kind of asked a lot of him,” Counsell said in January. “I think that is a sign of a lot of confidence in a young hitter. He showed us a lot.”

It was only 20 games, but Ballesteros posted an .868 OPS. The 22-year-old, who is capable of catching, playing first base and the outfield, has multiple avenues to playing time this year, as well as DH duties. Batting in a powerful Cubs lineup, Ballesteros could produce some big numbers. 

Carson Benge, OF, Mets 

After the trade of Brandon Nimmo, the Mets have a vacancy in left field, one that Benge will get a chance to fill in spring training.

MLB’s No. 16 prospect, Benge impressively rose up the ranks all the way to Triple-A last season after just 16 games in Single-A in 2024. And despite his struggles at that level, the 22-year-old was still hitting the ball hard and displaying his above-average skill set across the board. 

Benge will have competition for New York’s starting left field job, but could challenge for ROY if he wins that position battle.

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