Could Bryce Elder Snap a Decade-Long Braves Drought This Season?

The Atlanta Braves beat the Seattle Mariners 3-2 on Tuesday to tie up their weekday series, with Bryce Elder setting the tone again on the mound.

He gave his team six innings of two-run ball while striking out a season-high nine batters, continuing his strong start to the season. This run has allowed him to be a workhorse.

Continuing a trend from last season, Elder leads the Braves in innings pitched with 49 innings so far. Before, he led the way due to circumstance. Now, he's leading the way when the Braves have a mostly healthy rotation, because the work to rediscover his All-Star form paid off.

He's on pace to reach 202 innings this season if he can make 33 starts this season. It would be a career high by far, but it would also break a drought that has lasted over a decade. The last time a Braves pitcher clocked 200 innings was when both Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller reached the mark in 2015.

Other mainstays in the rotation since then, such as Max Fried and Charlie Morton, weren't able to clock that number of innings. A Braves starter these days would be fortunate to crack 180 innings. That hasn't happened since 2023, when Spencer Strider clocked 186 2/3 innings.

To take this a step further, no Braves pitcher has made 33 starts in a season since Morton in 2021. That aforementioned 2023 season from Strider is the last time a Braves arm made 32 starts. Reaching 200 innings is already difficult, but so is making enough starts to have a chance these days.

Last season, Reynaldo López set his sights on that goal, and he only made one start. The durable Bryce Elder is a much stronger candidate and likely the only realistic one. He's actually pitching on regular rest, something most other arms in the rotation haven't gotten.

The Braves have used certain starters out of the bullpen, limiting the innings they could amass. Martín Pérez and López are the two notable examples. Others, such as Chris Sale, have had their workloads managed.

Even if Sale made 33 starts, which is unlikely because he gets extra rest from time to time, his current pace would see him fall short with 198 innings pitched.

So, there's at least a candidate to end this drought this season. Everything has to go right. He can't get run out of games early too often. He's probably going to need a start or two where he pitches even deeper into a game. But early on, he's on track. Might as well keep an eye on this workload for now.

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