FanGraphs Paints Poor Picture for Braves 2026 Season

The latest ZiPS projections aren't giving the Atlanta Braves much benefit of the doubt after last season

The Braves have to prove to some prediction-makers that they can still be a strong contender | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The projections are beginning to roll in for the upcoming 2026 season, and the Atlanta Braves might have a thing or two to prove. FanGraphs released its ZiPS projections, opting to dampen its expectations.

To them, it’s clear the Braves are better than the 76-win team that they were in 2025. However, due to injuries and needing the team to prove that they’ll invest in the needed upgrades, they see, at best return to how they looked the season before. 

“When you assume that a lot of injuries will inevitably happen, the Braves look like an 84-88 win team (or somewhere thereabouts), depending on who the healthy guys are. That’s better than last year’s finish, but still kind of a disappointment.”

Getting the benefit of the doubt because they won 100 games a couple of times a few years ago, need not apply anymore. 

Certain players are expected to make an impact. They, obviously, like Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin and Chris Sale (though health is still a concern for him). Michael Harris II got the benefit of the doubt, and so did Austin Riley. They’re all expected to have solid seasons based on fWAR. They were brutal to Ozzie Albies after his struggles last season. 

“I’m also not sure that Ozzie Albies is even good anymore, which is a major bummer, as he’s now only a couple of years from hitting free agency and otherwise having the opportunity to make up for one of the worst pre-free agency contracts ever signed by a good player.”

However, they aren’t big on the bullpen, and it’s understood after how shaky it was at times last year. It’s not a total panic, but again, they don’t want you to be on the lookout for anyone being lights out. 

“ZiPS projects the bullpen to be competently average, and while nobody is forecast to be a dominant arm, the numbers don’t start looking worrisome until you get to the sixth or seventh relievers, which is true of most teams this early in the offseason.”

Not giving Raisel Iglesias higher expectations after how he bounced back was a little surprising, but his age likely factored into the equation a bit. 

Spencer Strider has to prove himself to them after experiencing decreased velocity and struggling to miss bats. Despite the strong showing late in the year, they only see Hurston Waldrep as a reasonable fifth option. 

They think prospects JR Ritchie and Lucas Braun are capable of stepping in “without it being a major disaster.” You can take that phrasing as you will. For what it’s worth, after they tried Erick Fedde and Carlos Carrasco to disastrous results, maybe simply not being expected to unravel is a good start. 

A major wakeup call is that the Braves are going to have lower expectations until proven otherwise. If they go pick up an impact bat and/or an impact starting pitcher, that’ll help. 

It’s no surprise that they’re waiting to see how players look when healthy. It hasn’t been on their side the last couple of seasons, and the plan to get healthy and go on a run last year didn’t happen at all. 

It’s an early offseason projection. It’s hard to put too much stake into it. However, it simply shows how opinion can change after one season where expectations weren’t met.