Breaking Down Shohei Ohtani’s Hitting Issues

LOS ANGELES — Shohei Ohtani will be in the lineup for the Dodgers in a virtual must-win Wednesday in Game 3 of the National League championship series. He convinced manager Dave Roberts on Tuesday he is a full go. But it’s obvious Ohtani is not fully healthy and must make quick tweaks to have a chance at being productive.

“As of now with the swing, it's a daily process of trying different things, different feel on a daily basis,” Ohtani said.

What’s wrong with Ohtani? His lower half is collapsing, leading to too much head movement. Of the injuries to his neck, right biceps and left knee, the one to his knee is causing him to collapse his lower half, which triggers a breakdown in his kinetic chain, especially too much head movement.

You can see a video breakdown of his problems above. But you can see an abbreviated version below in these stills. Both swings are against left-handed mid-zone sinkers. The one on the left is a home run from June 6 and the one on the right is a pop-up to third base in NLCS Game 2.

As his lower half collapses on the right, Ohtani can’t get to the firm front side you see on the left when he was healthy, a key to generating power. Now his back leg and foot are sliding behind him (arrow) instead of remaining in line with his front foot.

With the back foot behind him and an unstable lower half, Ohtani loses his proper spine angle. Instead of rotating around his core, the more severe spine angle pushes his head farther from his center of mass. He loses his firm front side and his head moves too much—sapping him of power.

The Brewers can see all this. They are attacking him. They are not prioritizing matchup lefties against him and they are absolutely pounding him with fastballs:

Brewers Fastballs (Not Including Cutters) vs. Ohtani

Time Period	Usage	BA
Regular Season	48.9%	.400
NLCS	75.0%	.000

This compromised version of Ohtani is nothing new. He has not pulled an extra-base hit since Aug. 25. He has not hit a home run since Aug. 18. Look at how injuries have depleted Ohtani since then:

Ohtani Splits	Games	HR	BA	SLG	Exit Velocity
Through Aug. 18	121	30	.294	.558	93.5
Since	24	0	.156	.200	91.1

The most glaring issues are he cannot pull the ball, and he is unable to get to above-average velocity. Since Aug. 19, Ohtani has faced 136 pitches with at least 95-mph velocity, and has just one hit and a .036 batting average to show for it.

Those problems are related to too much head movement, which is caused by an unstable base. His remedy for Game 3 likely will be to prioritize keeping his head still, which may involve less lower-half movement and a more controlled swing.

“The symptoms shouldn't be the reason why I can't hit, and even if the injuries happen by accident, I take full responsibility,” he said. “I take that as an opportunity for me to just take full responsibility for it. Today it's going to be another process for me to tinker and try new things.”

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts admitted after Game 2 that the thought of sitting Ohtani in Game 3 was a possibility. But Roberts met with Ohtani on Tuesday, along with president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, general manager Brandon Gomes and Ohtani’s interpreter. Ohtani convinced the room he is ready and convicted. When the best player on the planet tells you he’s good to go, you put him in the lineup. It’s that simple.

All eyes are on Ohtani ahead of Wednesday’s Game 3. Can he find a swing adjustment to have better at-bats? Can he catch up to a fastball? Can the Dodgers win the NLCS without getting slug from Ohtani? They’re running out of time to find out.

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