Why Brewers Fans Should Be Slightly Concerned About Freddy Peralta In Game 4

The Milwaukee Brewers have the luxury every team craves in the postseason on Thursday night.

In a potential closeout game against the Chicago Cubs, the Brewers will send their ace, Freddy Peralta, to the mound at Wrigley Field. He's pitching Game 4 of the National League Division Series on four days' rest, as opposed until waiting until a potential Game 5 on Saturday.

In retrospect, it was an obvious choice to start Peralta on what used to be termed "regular" rest (nowadays, it's more common for starters to throw on five days' rest instead of four). But examining the numbers, it's certainly easier to hit Peralta when he doesn't have that extra day to recover.

Peralta's numbers on four days' rest

Oct 4, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (51) reacts after striking out Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner (not pictured) during the fifth inning of game one of the NLDS round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

At first glance, Peralta's numbers this year on four days' rest look really good. He's put up a 2.59 ERA in 12 starts, compared to a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts on five days' rest. On four occasions, he's pitched on six or more days of rest and put up a 3.22 ERA.

However, the data does show that Peralta tends to get hit harder on those occasions when he doesn't get that extra day. On four days' rest, opposing batters hit .235 with a .646 OPS against him this year. On five days' rest, that batting average dropped to .170 (.597 OPS).

The difference-maker was the home run ball, which can be something of a confounding variable in small samples like this. Peralta only allowed four long balls in his starts on four days of rest, compared to 15 on five days of rest. But that's no guarantee he keeps the hard-hitting Cubs in the ballpark on Thursday night.

Another factor to consider: Peralta's home/road splits this year were fairly significant. He delivered a 1.77 ERA in 17 starts at home (not including his strong showing in Game 1 on Saturday), compared to a 3.71 mark in 16 starts on the road.

It's the postseason, so Peralta should be amped up. Fatigue shouldn't be a factor, especially because he had his workload carefully managed in September. And he's one of the best pitchers in the sport, so he fears no one.

But as good as Brewers fans should feel, they could have even more assurance if he had just one more day to recover before this crucial road showdown.

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