Brewers Survive Historically Tense NLDS Battle With Padres

The Brewers vs. Padres NLDS became only the second postseason series in which neither team led by more than two runs at any point.

Oct 7, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Aaron Ashby (26) pitches during the fifth inning against the San Diego Padres in game four of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Milwaukee Brewers are moving on to the National League Championship Series. But along the way, they made some history in their division series triumph over the San Diego Padres.

In all four games of the series, neither team led by more than two runs. It marked the second time in MLB postseason history that this happened. MLB's Sarah Langs wrote that the last time this happened was in the 1915 World Series, when the Boston Red Sox defeated the Philadelphia Phillies.

This series highlighted how much runs are at a premium in the postseason. Despite winning three of the four games, the Brewers only outscored the Padres 13-10. In this postseason, runs have come at a big premium. Teams that have scored at least four runs are a perfect 16-0.

Why the NLDS Between the Padres and Brewers Was Historically Close

Oct 7, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Trevor Megill (29) celebrates with Milwaukee Brewers catcher William Contreras (24) after the game against the San Diego Padres in game four of the NLDS for the 2026 MLB Playoffs at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The low scoring can be attributed to aggressive bullpen usage by both Pat Murphy and Craig Stammen. Each team only had one start of at least five innings, both coming in Game 2 between Logan Henderson and Michael King. With the bullpen being a major strength for both clubs, it made sense for both managers to leverage that to win.

It makes sense. The Padres were the top team in fWAR for relievers at 8.9, and the Brewers were fourth at 7.0. With two strong bullpens, it was going to be a matter of which bullpen performed better.

Ultimately, the Brewers bullpen edged out the Padres. Milwaukee relievers combined for just two runs (one earned) across 19 innings. Both runs came in their Game 3 loss in San Diego.

The game that likely swung the series their way was when Jackson Chourio walked off Mason Miller in Game 2. That was the only game in which either bullpen allowed more than two runs. In the other three games, the two bullpens were as good as advertised.

Brewers Face Tougher Challenge Against Dodgers in NLCS

Aug 16, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers (9) runs to third base in the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jon Endow-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Brewers are in for an even tougher pitching staff when they take on the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Los Angeles has a much stronger rotation with a bullpen that is almost as formidable. The Dodgers rank third in reliever fWAR at 7.6.

Looking at the X-factors for Milwaukee, it's clear they need their top two power threats to have a big series. William Contreras and Jackson Chourio are the two players who can put the ball in the seats. Otherwise, their offense is predicated on grinding down pitchers and manufacturing runs through baserunning and hitting with men in scoring position.

The Brewers' pitching staff has to keep the Dodgers in the yard to have a chance. They're a team with many players who can provide instant offense, with sluggers Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez in the heart of their lineup.