Cardinals On Pace to Shatter Projected Win Total in 2026

The Cardinals are playing well above their expectations.

May 10, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals right fielder Jordan Walker (18) points skyward after hitting two-run home run during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals recently finished one of their toughest stretches of the season, going 9-7 against teams such as the Seattle Mariners, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres.

They had 16 games in 17 days and ultimately emerged from the stretch at 23-17, just 3 1/2 games back of first place in the National League Central and in the third NL wild card spot.

At the beginning of the year, Gabe Laques of USA Today had the Cardinals winning 68 games. However, they are now on pace to win 93 games instead.

How to calculate wins on pace

May 8, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals second baseman JJ Wetherholt (26) hits a RBI single during the fifth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

To determine this is much easier than it sounds. The Cardinals have a .575 winning percentage after Sunday's loss to the Padres. That is multiplied by the number of games in a season, which in this case is 162.

.575 multiplied by 162 is 93.15, and then a simple rule of math to determine whether to round up or down is applied. In this case, since the digit after the decimal is lower than 5, this would be rounded down, giving us our answer.

So, based on how the Cardinals are playing now, if they were to continue at this pace, they would finish 93-69, which would be their highest total since 2022, the last time St. Louis made the postseason. They also won 93 games that year and ran away with the NL Central before being knocked out in the first round by the Philadelphia Phillies.

With a lot of time still left in the season, this could always fluctuate, which means that the Cardinals could ultimately find themselves on pace for more or less wins. They weren't expected to be competitive this season, but so far, they have shattered their projected win total from the start of the season.

If they keep up at this pace, then they could ultimately finish much better than expected, which would be a treat for the fanbase after the franchise declared a rebuild. It is ultimately proof that Chaim Bloom's plan is working to perfection. While John Mozeliak drafted and developed many of these players, it is Bloom's work that is ultimately helping the Cardinals win more games.

Spots were finally cleared for younger players, and the lack of pressure has led to the Cardinals playing much better baseball. It will be interesting to see if they can keep this pace up and reach the playoffs for the first time in four years.