Can Chicago Cubs Slugger Shake 'Biggest Bust Candidate' Label in Upcoming Season?

A Chicago Cubs slugger has landed on a list no player wants to be on.

Sep 17, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch (29) hits an RBI-single against the Oakland Athletics during the third inning at Wrigley Field. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs are one team that people are keeping a close eye on heading into spring training as they look to be in a position to make a real jump in the standings.

They were active during the offseason, addressing some of the holes on their roster. That has many analysts believing they are the favorites in the National League Central since most of their division mates didn’t spend the winter improving their rosters.

The biggest addition the team made was acquiring All-Star right fielder Kyle Tucker from the Houston Astros.

He will be their new middle-of-the-order anchor as the Cubs look to get their offense back on track after an underwhelming 2024 at the plate.

One of the players who did shine through for the team last year was first baseman Michael Busch.

Acquired in an offseason trade from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he performed at a high level in his rookie campaign.

He provided some serious pop, hitting 21 home runs with 28 doubles and two triples, knocking in 65 runs. His OPS+ of 118 was above average and his approach has a solid baseline with an 11.1% walk rate.

However, the second half of the season was a struggle for him.

Busch had a slash line of .216/.303/.402 in 231 plate appearances post-All-Star break. His power output remained solid with nine home runs and nine doubles, but his batted-ball data hinted that a regression to the mean was coming.

That is one reason why Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report has listed Busch on his list of 10 biggest bust candidates for the 2025 campaign.

The regression he experienced in the second half last year could carry over into the upcoming season because some of his production was courtesy of good luck.

His season-long batting average of .248 doesn’t match up with his expected batting average of .217, which was in the eighth percentile. That gap was amongst the largest in baseball as well.

Chicago is certainly hoping that isn’t a sign of things to come since the slugging first baseman is a major part of their game plan moving forward.

With Cody Bellinger no longer on the roster, there isn’t anyone else who is going to push him for playing time, so his job isn’t in danger. But, first base could quickly become an area of need if his underlying stats begin to show through and match his actual production.

With some talented prospects quickly moving through the minor league system, Busch will have to show some more consistency to lock down a starting spot long term.

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