MLB Insiders Deliver Concerning Outlook for All-Star Cubs Pitcher

When the Cubs reached contract decisions with left-hander Justin Steele and right-handers Javier Assad and Edward Cabrera back in January, the team’s pitching seemed to be in a good place heading into the 2026 season.

The starting rotation has yet to be officially confirmed, but fans will likely see Shota Imanaga, Jameson Tallion, Cade Horton, and Matthew Boyd alongside Cabrera.

Left-hander Matthew Boyd joined the Cubs from Cleveland last season and was key to the team's increasing success on the mound, but this year, some analysts aren’t so sure the 2025 All-Star will be able to recreate that spark.

Chicago Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd | Matt Kartozian-Imagn Images

Boyd was ranked in The Athletic’s 2026 Aces Project, a list of the top-50 starting pitchers in the major leagues compiled by the outlet’s MLB insiders. He was tied at No. 49 with Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee.

Boyd’s 2026 outlook is "pessimistic," per insiders

Boyd initially signed with the Cubs on a two-year, $29 million deal in 2024, and the team’s investment in the 35-year-old paid off.

Boyd finished his first season in Chicago 14-8, throwing 179.2 innings and posting a 3.21 ERA. He averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings and recorded a 3.65 FIP. This strong showing earned him a first career All-Star team selection.

“Good for a solid, back-end arm,” one executive told The Athletic. But despite last season, the panelists are “pessimistic about Boyd putting together a repeat.”

“Very good 2025,” one scout said. “But that was his first healthy year since 2020.”

Boyd has a history of injury dating back to May 2018, when he first experienced a left oblique spasm.

Since 2021, Boyd has missed approximately 345 games due to injury. That season alone, he had three reported issues: an undisclosed injury in April, a hurt arm in June and an elbow injury in September.

Boyd faced more problems with his elbow in March 2022, June 2023 and June 2024, before missing two games last season with a left shoulder contusion. His 2023 elbow injury led to Tommy John surgery, but he hasn’t experienced any reported issues with that elbow since 2024.

In Mesa, Boyd has started just two games and hasn’t appeared for the Cubs since their 5-4 loss to the Angels on Feb. 26. In two appearances, he’s thrown only 4.2 innings and maintained a 1.63 ERA.

Other Cubs starting pitcher rankings

Feb 12, 2026; Mesa, AZ, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher Cade Horton (22) throws in the bullpen during spring training camp at Sloan Park. | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Of the Cubs’ expected starters, Boyd was ranked the lowest. However, only three made the list in total.

Cade Horton at No. 40 received the highest ranking of the Cubs’ starters and was tied with Padres right-hander Michael King. Also making the list was Edward Cabrera, who only beat Boyd by one spot, coming in at No. 48.

“Can’t trust the strikes,” one evaluator said of Cabrera.

All three Cubs pitchers were ranked in Tier 5, meaning their overall rating from the panelists was 59.5 or below. Tier 5 is the lowest, aside from honorable mentions. Imanaga and Tallion went unranked.