Should Chicago Cubs Be Favorites to Win Their Division This Season?

FanGraphs has predicted that the Chicago Cubs will have an improvement of one win for 2025 to finish with an overall record of 84-78 to go along with a run differential of plus-26.

While that doesn't sound as optimistic as Cubs fans were hoping for, FanGraphs predicts Chicago will be the only team in the NL Central to finish over .500.

They also give the Cubs a 42.7% to win the division, a 10.4% of getting one of the top two seeds, plus a 55.5% chance to make the playoffs overall.

This is not a ringing endorsement, but that makes them the favorites to win the NL Central.

Chicago closed well in 2024 finishing 83-79, but remained a distant 10 games behind the NL Central champion Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cubs had high hopes after hiring Craig Counsell and making him the highest-paid manager in baseball, but not even he could cure their incessant bullpen woes.

They made news in December when they acquired star slugger Kyle Tucker in a four-player trade, an aggressive move this fan base has been clamoring for the organization to make.

They gave up three years of club control for third baseman Isaac Paredes, four of pitcher Hayden Wesneski and six of prospect Cam Smith for one season left on the contract of Tucker, but the addition of a great bat like the slugger will make it a formidable lineup.

The Cubs plugged a huge hole in their by trading for former Houston Astros closer Ryan Pressly, whom, despite not closing since 2023, will assume the shutdown role this team desperately needed.

In 2023, Pressly saved 31 games and had a WHIP of 1.07. If he can return to that form, the trickle-down effect in the bullpen will be immeasurable.

The additional signing of left-handed starting pitcher Mathew Boyd will solidify the top four in the rotation.

The ace of the staff is Shota Imanaga, who will try to follow up his fabulous 15-3 rookie campaign. Behind him are Justin Steele, Jameson Tallion and Boyd.

The fifth spot is iffy if they are counting on Javier Asaad or newly acquired 33-year-old Colin Rea to pick up the innings.

Setting up Pressly for the ninth will be a couple of guys to pencil in, but it is more a group of depth than dominant pitchers to come out of the bullpen in the eighth and seventh innings. The addition of Ryan Brasier should lock up the eighth, though, and Tyson Miller could also grab some high-leverage frames.

In the past, FanGraphs has always downplayed the NL Central, but this year it appears that, not only is there not a dominant team, but there will not be a traditional doormat.

The race for the division title will likely be a two-horse race.

Coupled with the Brewers' regression, they both should fend off the Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates and the oddly-quiet St. Louis Cardinals.

It will be an I-94 race to 87 wins for the division title.

My prediction for the Cubs is that, after underperforming in 2024, Counsell will have his troops over-achieving in 2025.

Recommended Articles