The Cubs Should Be Concerned About Michael Busch's Slow Start

The Chicago Cubs are off to a mediocre start to the 2026 season. After having high expectations to not only win the NL Central but also compete for a title, they are just .500 in their first 18 games.

While some Cubs hitters like second baseman Nico Hoerner have gotten off to hot starts, first baseman Michael Busch is off to a horrible start to the season.

While a .434 OPS is not likely to stand a whole 162-game season, Busch's stats show that Cubs fans should be worried.

Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Why should Cubs fans be worried?

The Los Angeles Dodgers selected Busch in the first round of the 2019 MLB Draft. He quickly became a top prospect in the Dodgers' system and in baseball.

Busch would make his debut in 2023 with Los Angeles, playing just 27 games with a .539 OPS, though he would soon be traded to the Cubs in exchange for prospects Jackson Ferris and Zyhir Hope.

After a breakout 2024 season that saw Busch hit 21 home runs with a .775 OPS, he followed up with an even better 2025 campaign, in which he hit 34 home runs with an .866 OPS.

Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch and second baseman Nico Hoerner | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

He's off to a terrible start to the 2026 season, though.

Busch, in 61 at-bats, has hit just .148 with no home runs and just two extra-base hits. And his Baseball Savant page shows he won't be breaking out of this slump anytime soon.

To start 2026, Busch's bat speed has gone down 2.6 mph from 69.6 to 67 mph. His 2025 bat speed was already well below-average. Now, it's in the third percentile.

This is resulting in his average exit velocity being 82.6 mph, which is in the first percentile. His slugging percentage (.180) is unlikely to continue. However, his expected slugging is just .253, in the fifth percentile.

He's also not barreling the ball, with his stat at just 4.2%, good for the 25th percentile.

All this comes as Busch went from having most of his advanced stats in the elite range in 2025 to most of his stats being among the worst in baseball.

While his hitting numbers have been poor, to say the least, his defense has improved significantly since 2025. So far, he is in the 95th percentile in Outs Above Average with +2.

With center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong also struggling with the bat, the Cubs will have to hope Busch picks it up soon, because with their pitching injuries, their season could be underwhelming.

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