The Big Hit Has Eluded the Diamondbacks in 2024

The Diamondbacks have done an excellent job of creating traffic late in games, but have been unable to cash in this season.

The Diamondbacks have a 7-8 overall record so far in 2024. In games decided by three runs or less, however, they are just 2-7 with three blown saves. While it's easy to blame just the bullpen, since they're the players charged with giving up the late runs, the secondary issue has been a lack of clutch hits late in the game.

One stat that perfectly encapsulates this is the team's numbers in "Close and Late" situations. Baseball Reference defines Close and Late as "Plate Appearances in the 7th or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck". It's a great metric for evaluating how "clutch" a hitter is, as a team is typically one swing of the bat away from making an impact on the game.

The MLB batting average in that split is .228. The D-backs are hitting .105, 29th in the league, with just three extra base hits, all doubles, in 96 plate appearances. At the same time, they've drawn 15 walks, which is tied for the most in the league in this split. What's evident about that track record is the team has been able to build innings to set up the opportunity to drive in runs, but they've not been able to capitalize on them.

While it would be easy to point at the lack of runs scored in this situation, it isn't due to poor at-bat quality. The team has only 20 strikeouts, so they're putting the ball in play. However, the quality of contact hasn't been great.

From a Statcast search, when the D-backs have the tying or go-ahead run either at the plate or on the bases in the 6th inning or later, they are hitting .127, slugging .169, and have a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .194. Even if we used expected stats, which take the quality of contact into account, those three numbers come out to a .166 xBA, .221 xSLG, and .234 xwOBA respectively. Simply put, they must execute better moving forward to be more competitive in close games.

The lack of results can be tough to reconcile, as the team is doing the first half of this process correctly by having patient at bats, taking walks and not striking out too much. But they're simply not finishing the inning when they have the chance. D-backs manager Torey Lovullo doesn't want his hitters pressing at the plate and instead focusing on being a good hitter, no matter the situation.

"Keep building innings, keep doing what you do. Know your role, know where you are in the lineup, know who you are. Do your job to the best of your ability to help get on base because someone is going to be there to pick you up. Continue to be a good hitter, no matter what the count is, no matter what the situation is, no matter where the runners are. Just be yourself and be a good hitter."

Time will tell if this team can put together more consistent at-bats late. They've shown flashes of it in this series against the Cardinals, with big three-run home runs from Eugenio Suarez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the middle innings. It could be as simple as executing in these situations a couple of times and gaining the confidence that they can do it again.