D-backs Bryce Jarvis Needs to Improve Peripherals to Repeat Stellar ERA

The projections forecast includes a lot of regression to the mean, but don't discount this tough competitor's ability to get outs and suppress runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Bryce Jarvis (40) delivers a pitch on July 27, 2024 at Chase Field in Phoenix. / Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

Today we examine the projections for Arizona Diamondbacks reliever Bryce Jarvis. The projections presented here are the composite average of ZiPS and Steamer, prorated to our playing time projection.

Bryce Jarvis, Right-Hand Pitcher, Age 27

Bryce Jarvis 2025 Projection / Jack Sommers

Bryce Jarvis was a first round pick in the 2020 draft, taken 18th overall. Converted to full time relief in the latter part of 2023, all but one of his 55 major league appearances has been out of the bullpen.

Jarvis was performing well in a long relief role for the team, eating up innings for manager Torey Lovullo. Unfortunately the workload might have caught up, as the right-hander suffered a sprained elbow. Placed on the injured list August 6, he did not pitch again in 2024.

Why Bryce Jarvis might outperform his projection

Jarvis has a career 3.14 ERA in 83 innings, but the projection above expects a 4.45 ERA in 2025. This despite projected improvement in both walk and strikeout rates.

Jarvis has shown an ability to work around traffic. His approach on the mound is not to give in, but also to pitch to contact. This leads to an elevated walk rate, and a low strikeout rate, both considerably worse than MLB Average.

But Jarvis has also shown that he can dial up a ground ball double play when he needs it. Last year he induced a double play in 11 of 62 chances, 18%. That's nearly double the league average 10%.

Five of those double plays came with a runner on third and less than two outs, where he gave up just one his in 19 plate appearances.

At the same time he was toughest in high leverage situations, allowing just a .192 batting average and .509 OPS against. That's compared to a .239 BA and .711 OPS against in all situations.

Jarvis threw a 95.7 MPH four-seamer and 95.1 MPH sinker. His slider generated a 30% swing-and-miss rate. A former starter, he should probably consider paring down his repertoire in relief, starting with the cutter, which is his worst pitch statistically.

Why Jarvis might under perform projections

While expected to be fully recovered, elbow sprains can reoccur or be harbingers of worse injuries to come. Any setback in his comeback road would of course impact his numbers, knocking down the appearances and innings projection, as well as impact effectiveness.

Jarvis had a .261 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) last year and .234 for his career. MLB average was .289 in 2024. Thus you see a hit rate of 7.2/9 from Jarvis for his career, but a projection of 9.0 H/9 for 2025.

At the same time, the walk (10.2%) and strikeout (17.8%) rates projected already represent significant improvement from 2024, but both are still worse than league average.

For his career, the peripheral and expected metrics for Jarvis compared poorly to actual ERA. His career xERA (Statcast) is 5.45, his FIP is 5.10, and his xFIP is 5.44. In short, all the underlying metrics showed that the true quality of Jarvis' output was that of a pitcher with an ERA over five.

Summary

Bryce Jarvis is coming back from an elbow injury that sidelined him for the final two months of the season. He is a tough competitor who does not give in, and has found a way to get outs at the big league level in all sorts of difficult situations.

But batted ball luck played a part too. His poor walk and strikeout rates will need to improve even more than projected in the table above to offset a likely regression to the mean with his hit rate.

Currently the Diamondbacks have at least six relief pitchers on the depth chart ahead of Jarvis, including Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, Ryan Thompson, and newly acquired Seth Martinez, who is out of options.

The pitchers vying for the remaining two bullpen spots on opening day include but are not limited to Jarvis, Drey Jameson, Kyle Nelson, and even starters Ryne Nelson, Jordan Montgomery, Yilber Diaz, and Blake Walston, depending on how the rotation shakes out.