Diamondbacks 2025 Player Projections: Corbin Burnes

This article is part of a series reviewing the projections for each member of the Arizona Diamondbacks 40-man roster, as well as select prospects and non-roster invitees. The order of presentation was chosen using a random number generator.

The projection is comprised of the average of ZiPS and Steamer rate statistic projections, which can be found on FanGraphs. The playing time projections are our own, based on our estimates. As the D-backs make further moves throughout the offseason, the playing time projections will be updated, and relevant counting stats such as home runs and WAR can be updated.

Corbin Burnes, Right-Hand Starting Pitcher, Age 30

Corbin Burnes projections for 2025 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and his career numbers against league average starters — Corbin Burnes projections for 2025 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and his career numbers against league average starting pitchers | Jake Oliver

Why Burnes may outperform the projection

Corbin Burnes is fresh off signing the team's highest ever contract and he's made the All-Star team four years in a row, including the American League last year. Burnes is projected for what would be the second worst ERA in his career as a starting pitcher.

He had a 2.92 ERA in 2024 and 3.39 in 2023. His projection of 3.34 is elevated, but is generally in-line with his recent few years.

Burnes will now be pitching year-long at home, surrounded by his family, and in comfort. That edge of sleeping in one's own bed, being with their family constantly, and staying at home has been attributed by multiple players in the past to aiding their performance. This could certainly help Burnes have an edge as it was a key factor in him signing with Arizona.

Burnes also has surpassed 174 innings three years in a row and has spoken in the past about striving to pitch deeper into games instead of chasing strikeouts. That's become evident as he's thrown 193+ innings in three straight years.

He's become a pitcher of old as he seeks to last longer into games, getting those valuable 21 outs or more in order to help his team win. Burnes went from a pump and drain for five innings, chasing strikeouts, to getting quicker outs. Thus, the strikeout rate going downhill has not affected his ERA or ability much and shouldn't in 2025.

While Burnes will be hard-pressed to ever come close to his standout 2021 season, he should remain a strong No.1 starter for the next couple of seasons at a minimum, especially as he works in a new-found sweeper that has been garnering plenty of swing and misses and a re-worked cutter that excelled to end last season.

The sweeper, thrown just 54 times last year, had a whiff rate of 45.7%. If that becomes a regular pitch for him this year, the strikeouts could pile up.

So long as he is healthy, it's hard to see Burnes not at least meeting these projections if not beating them outright. He can easily beat them if he just does what he did last year or in 2023 as a member of the Brewers.

Pitching in the NL West ballparks aside from Coors Field certainly could help him as they are more spacious and can help limit impact hits.

If he can utilize his sweeper more to add a few more strikeouts and maintains the revitalized use of his cutter from late last season, then it would not be a surprise to see him get close to a 3.00 ERA and 200 innings.

Why Burnes may under-perform the projection

As always, injury can strike at any notice and for a starting pitcher that has thrown 903.2 innings thus far, the injury risk is certainly heightened. Plus, he's in his 30s now so that elbow and shoulder are older and should he suffer any kind of injury, his numbers would likely fall short of these.

Plus, as has been written about extensively here and other places, Burnes' strikeout rate has been falling and he's been outperforming his FIP by a hefty margin the last three years.

Speaking about the FIP, Burnes was "lucky" to have an ERA at 2.92 last year as his FIP indicates it should've been closer to 3.55. In 2023, he had a similar margin as his 3.81 FIP was 0.42 points higher than his 3.39 ERA. In 2022, it was 0.2 points worse than ERA at 3.14.

About his strikeout rate, Burnes' rate of punchouts has decreased every year since 2021 when he struck out 36.7% of batters in 2020. In 2023, it fell all the way to 25.5%, and last year, it fell to just 23.1%.

However, in September of last year when he worked in his improved cutter and his sweeper, the number rose back up to 27.7%. Still, it's a true question as to whether that was a mirage or here to stay.

There's also the matter of getting used to Chase Field, the D-backs pitching coaches, and new catchers. Though Gabriel Moreno should make it easier on him, there's always growing pains for a new battery.

Should Burnes continue to pitch to more contact with fewer strikeouts and his ERA ends up closer to his FIP, then there is a very real chance that he performs under these projections.

Summary

Corbin Burnes has been the model of health over his time in MLB. The Arizona Diamondbacks are paying him a franchise record contract because of that and how excellent he has performed over that time. Very few pitchers come anywhere near to him.

He's redeveloped his cutter, discovered a sweeper, gets to pitch at home with his family, and has turned himself into a pitcher that is seeking to pitch deeper into games. On the flip side, he's outperformed his FIP three years in a row and his strikeout rate has fallen every year since 2020. Yet, there may be some hope for a rebound on that.

Burnes is the Diamondbacks staff ace and they are expecting him to carry the rotation and be the front-leader along with Zac Gallen to get them deep into the playoffs.