Kevin Ginkel Could Return to Elite Form in 2025

The righty setup man is expected to deliver a sturdy 2025 season for the Diamondbacks.

Sep 10, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Kevin Ginkel (37) throws against the Texas Rangers in the sixth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series breaking down each individual projection for members of the Arizona Diamondbacks, exploring the 40-man roster, as well as certain prospects and non-roster invitees.

The projection featured is the average of ZiPS and Steamer rate statistic projections, which can be found on FanGraphs. The playing time projections are our own, based on our estimates. As the D-backs make further moves throughout the offseason, the playing time projections will be updated, and relevant stats such as home runs and WAR can be updated.

RHP Kevin Ginkel, 30

Kevin Ginkel statistics and 2025 projection | Alex D'Agostino, Diamondbacks On SI

Right-handed reliever Kevin Ginkel emerged in 2023 as one of the Arizona Diamondbacks' top bullpen arms. His development came at a crucial time, and his lockdown eighth-inning presence was instrumental in the D-backs' pennant win and run to the World Series.

In 2024, he suffered some statistical regression and a pair of injuries. Though he appeared to struggle at times, he still put forward a very respectable 3.21 ERA, prevented walks and struck out plenty of hitters.

Why Ginkel might outperform this projection

Considering his 2024 season was a bit strange from start to finish, it's quite reasonable to see him pitch closer to his elite 2023 form than his 2024 season.

Ginkel began the year closing games for the D-backs in Paul Sewald's absence. Though he struggled a bit initially, he eventually settled into a rhythm. Both his stuff and velocity played well, and he didn't appear to be missing his spots.

It's not to say that a projected 3.32 ERA for the righty is a poor number. That would certainly play in most clubs' bullpens just fine. But Ginkel is just a year removed from a dominant 2023, where he pitched to a 2.48 ERA.

But the biggest reason he might pitch to an elite level again and smash his projections is simply his batted ball luck.

I wrote about this as the season came to a close in 2024, but Ginkel truly was executing at a near-perfect level, and still being punished for it in overall results. In September and October, his ERA touched 8.00.

But he wasn't walking batters, and he finished 2024 with an even higher strikeouts per nine (9.90) than 2023 (9.64). His walk rate was a minuscule 5.2%, and his ERA was bolstered by a 2.85 FIP.

With that said, Ginkel's BABIP turned against him. Opponents were hitting .332 on balls put in play, many of which came on poor contact, or as a result of a blown defensive play.

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But despite this run of bad luck, Ginkel provided +8 pitching run value, and nearly all his peripherals suggested he was pitching well, collecting whiffs and commanding the zone just fine.

With even a slight regression to the mean to his BABIP, Ginkel could easily see his raw numbers improve noticeably. A sub-3.00 ERA is absolutely in play, and he's pitched well enough to deserve one in back-to-back seasons.

His velocity, movement and command all appear to be in good shape, and his confidence and execution seemed to return as the 2024 season went on. The D-backs could reasonably see the dominant 2023 version of Ginkel again in 2025.

Why Ginkel might underperform this projection

As always, the relief ERA economy is quite volatile. It doesn't take much for even an elite arm to be set up for poor end-season results, even if they finish strong. A few poor outings here and there could spell a lopsided ERA, even if said reliever pitched generally well.

Ginkel is no stranger to streaky outings. When he's off, he can he can struggle to throw strikes and get hit hard.

While his command was excellent to close out 2024, any regression in that category could catapult his numbers into an undesirable range. Not to mention, a few seasons in a row of excellent ERA and rate stats could be due for overall regression.

It doesn't seem entirely likely that Ginkel will perform exceptionally poorly in 2025, but the potential for volatile outings is there, and if his BABIP and batted ball luck suffer again to open the year, so will his ERA.

The key for Ginkel will be setting a tone for the season and building confidence early. It took a while for the big righty to get back to his dominant form in 2024, and if he begins 2025 on a shaky note, that could carry into the middle months.

Summary

Ginkel's 2025 projections are relatively modest, but still quite good. The righty has plenty of talent, and has certainly executed very well in the past pair of seasons, even withstanding some poor luck.

Obviously, at age 31, there's potential for injury or severe regression, but the way Ginkel finished 2024 was quite encouraging as a whole, despite what his poor September ERA showed. In all likelihood, he'll be poised for a solid 2025, especially if his BABIP regresses in a positive direction.

On top of that, if the D-backs can solidify their bullpen with a true closer, an early defined role for the right-hander could help propel his confidence back to where it needs to be. When Ginkel is feeling it, he's nearly impossible to hit, and that could manifest early in 2025 if all goes right.

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