It Ain't Over Til It's Over: Takeaways From D-backs’ Sweep vs Braves

The Arizona Diamondbacks just concluded a three-game sweep of the Braves at Truist Park in Atlanta. They won by scores of 8-3 and 2-1, before storming back to take the series finale 11-10. Here are my three main takeaways:

"It Ain't Over Til it's Over"

This famous Yogi Berra quote applies to not only all three games in this series, but the season as a whole. Down 6-0 and 9-3, the Diamondbacks made an improbable comeback with a seven-run ninth inning to beat the Braves 11-10.

In game one they opened up a close 5-3 ballgame with three runs in ninth, and then barely hung on to win game two when closer Justin Martinez recorded a five-out, 37-pitch save.

The point being that baseball is played for nine innings, and there are frequently going to be twists and turns, especially with a below-average bullpen and a very potent offense. This point is driven home by the following facts.

Coming into Thursday's game, the D-backs rank second in runs scored (64) and OPS (.814) in "Late and Close" situations. But in those same situations their 75 runs allowed and .880 OPS against their pitching staff ranks as the worst in MLB. Those numbers all improved after Thursday's game.

D-backs fans have already experienced many wild swings in the team's late-inning fortunes, and that's likely to continue. It's not for the faint of heart, but it's the nature of this team.

Meanwhile, sweeping the series is a reminder that for all their struggles in May, the season is not over for the D-backs. They're back to .500 at 31-31 and only three games out of the NL Wild Card as of this writing. Not an ideal situation, but far from the point where the organization would decide to punt on the season and start selling off impending free agents.

The D-backs have a Brandon Pfaadt problem

Arizona received two excellent starts in the first two games of the series. Zac Gallen threw seven innings of three-run ball, giving up four hits, including a solo homer. Merrill Kelly followed that up by throwing seven shutout innings and took a no-hitter into the sixth, recording two outs before giving up his first hit of the game to Ronald Acuña Jr.

With Corbin Burnes moved to the injured list and the team holding their breath, waiting for an update on a second opinion on his elbow MRI, those starts were just what the D-backs needed.

Brandon Pfaadt's was not. For the second straight game he gave up a slew of runs under a barrage of hard contact. He allowed six runs, five in the third inning. Ketel Marte made a key error in the inning, but that was followed by a single and three doubles.

Over his last two outings Pfaadt has recorded just nine outs while giving up 14 runs, 13 earned on 11 hits, two walks, and two HBP. Of the 19 balls put in play, 13 of them have been over 95 MPH (hard-hit threshold), and 10 of them have been over 100 MPH. Of his 11 hits, seven have been doubles.

Pfaadt has been getting crushed by left-hand hitters this year. As a result, he's moved away from his trademark sweeper, and been trying to throw more curveballs, changeups, and sinkers. None of it has been effective, obviously.

The Diamondbacks extended Pfaadt at the beginning of the season to a five-year, $45 million contract. That decision is not looking great at the moment, considering his 5.51 ERA and near-seven expected ERA from Statcast (quality of contact plus walks and strikeouts).

As unthinkable as it may seem, the team might be considering optioning him to the minor leagues. The problem there is the PCL and Reno is not the place to go for a confidence-stricken pitcher. Perhaps they could just send him to the bullpen, and have him switch places with Cristian Mena, who is currently a long reliever.

Offense, Offense, Offense!

The D-backs rank fourth in MLB with 317 runs scored. They also rank fourth in homers (87) and third in OPS (.781). They hit seven home runs in the series, three by Ketel Marte. They were 10-for-29 in the series with runners in scoring position, and have now improved to .245 on the season, which ranks 19th. Not long ago they were hitting .230 in that metric.

They're still scoring a relatively high percentage of their runs via the long ball (44.5%), which is the fifth-highest total in MLB. But they're getting men on base, and if you're hitting a lot of homers, runners on first are in scoring position too.

If the Diamondbacks' pitching can get more consistent somehow, even to just league average, this offense has the ability to power them to a playoff spot by the end of the season.

It Ain't Over Til It's Over: Takeaways From D-backs’ Sweep vs Braves