What do Major Projection Systems Say About the Diamondbacks?

With just six days before the official start of spring training, it's time to take stock of the team and their chances heading into the 2025 season

Jun 25, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks infielder Ketel Marte (4) celebrates with teammate Corbin Carroll (7) after hitting a two run home run in the first inning against the Minnesota Twins at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 89 games last year, on the strength of a league best offense, overcoming a pitching staff that struggled with injury and underperformance. Unfortunately they fell one game short of making the postseason due to a late season collapse.

It was a bitter ending to what looked to be a promising follow up on their surprise run to the World Series in 2023. But management picked themselves up and dusted off after getting over the initial disappointment, and set about the task of building the roster back up to compete in 2025.

Despite attrition in the form of departing free agents Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, they managed to trade for slugging first baseman Josh Naylor and bring back Randal Grichuk. The biggest move this offseason was the signing of free agent, front line starter Corbin Burnes.

Adding these players to an already strong core, including Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, and Zac Gallen, appears to have put the Diamondbacks in a strong position to compete once again for a National League playoff spot. The major projection systems have begun rolling out their playoff odds and win totals reports, and the picture looks positive for the D-backs.

Fangraphs playoff odds report projects the Diamondbacks to win 85.7 games and have a 59.3% chance of making the postseason as the third wild card. Baseball Prospectus Pecota standings are even higher, showing an 87 win season, and playoff odds of 66.6%.

The table below represents the composite average of Fangraphs and Pecota standings and playoff odds projections for the National League.

NL Wins and Playoff Odds Projection / Jack Sommers

Analysis

The behemoth Los Angeles Dodgers are projected to win the NL West handily, garnering a 97.5 wins projection and 97.9% playoff odds projection from Fangraphs. Pecota standings are off the charts for the Dodgers, showing 103.8 wins and 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. In the world of heavily regressed projections, their 101 composite wins and 99% playoff odds is an astounding projection.

The Braves project to come out on top in the hotly contested NL East, but will need to avoid the devastating spate of injuries to key players they suffered in 2024. The Mets and Phillies are right on the Braves heels, well within the margin of error when it comes to divisional title hopes.

The Cubs project to take the relatively weak NL central, and thus are listed in the top group of division winners despite having lower odds than the Mets, who currently project to be the first wild card.

The Diamondbacks project as the third wild card, but enjoy a healthy 4.4 win margin between them and the next highest team, the Padres. San Diego has had a quiet offseason due to front office turmoil. In addition, their roster may be top heavy with stars, but with insufficient depth.

The Brewers somehow seem to always be tougher than their projections would suggest, and under fiery manager Pat Murphy, that is likely to continue. The Buster Posey run Giants are a team that may be poised to produce more than the surface look at the sum of their parts. The rest of the National League look like also rans as of this round of projections.

Summary

These projections and playoff odds will change daily, and the size of the changes will increase as the final touches are put on rosters and spring gets underway. Injuries will impact the depth charts and move the playing time around.

At the end of the day these projections are just a starting point for possible expecations, not an end point, or anything that should be considered set in stone. It's now up to the coaching staffs to prepare their players, and the players to perform and stay healthy. Where it goes from here is unpredictable.

But for the Diamondbacks, the ownership and top level management are to be commended for their efforts to put the best possible product on the field. With a franchise record payroll estimated to be somewhere over $190 million, well in excess of last year's already record $172 million, they have pushed their chips all in to win.

Their offseason may not be done just yet either, as they are still in pursuit of a back end, high leverage reliever to round out their bullpen. Stay tuned to Arizona Diamondbacks On SI for further development with the team.