Who Could Be the Breakout Players for Diamondbacks in 2025?

The Arizona Diamondbacks saw numerous breakout seasons from players last year, both on the mound and at the plate. Some of the players who broke out were Ryne Nelson, Justin Martinez, Jake McCarthy, Adrian Del Castillo, and others.

The team here at Diamondbacks On SI decided to take a shot at making the predictions for who on the D-backs will have a breakout year at both pitcher and hitter. The team will need many breakout years in order to get back to the playoffs and pick up their offense from last year.

Breakout Hitters

Gabriel Moreno, C, - Jake Oliver

Gabriel Moreno has all the hallmarks of a pending breakout year upcoming. He's healthy, added on muscle in the off-season, is motivated after multiple seasons dealing with injury, and perhaps most of all, he's hitting the ball hard.

He has already hit three home runs in Spring Training. Moreno's hit more balls over 95 mph exit velocity in Spring Training than he did all of 2024. While the hits haven't been landing, they will if he consistently is making that kind of loud contact. Not to mention, he's entering his prime at 25 years old.

Gabriel Moreno, C, - Jack Sommers

Gabriel Moreno came to camp trimmed down and with more muscle definition thanks to a better workout and nutrition regimen. The added strength and mobility showed up in his batted ball data, as
he hit the ball hard all spring. If he adds consistent pop coupled with his already good batting averages, he could post a 120 OPS+.

Randal Grichuk, OF/DH, - Alex D'Agostino

It's hard to call a 33-year-old with a history of success a breakout candidate, especially when he hit .291/.348/.528 in 2024. But those numbers came over exceptionally limited playing time. While platooning does offer him a better chance at success, it seems likely that Grichuk might get more plate appearances and more starts in 2025.

With that in mind, his numbers might actually look worse than they did in 2024, but in terms of overall everyday value, and sample size production, Grichuk looks poised for a more impactful year after he hit an impressive .324/.378/.647 with three long homers in Spring Training.

Pavin Smith, DH, - Aaron Hughes

It's been a rollercoaster for Smith since his selection with the 7th overall pick in the 2017 draft. His career numbers to this point have been anything shy of stellar, with a career OPS+ of 98 across 5 seasons. Still, in 2024, he showed something across a limited sample that the Diamondbacks had only dreamed of.

In 158 plate appearances, he hit to a .270 clip, with a .896 OPS, while crushing right-handers to the tune of a .920 OPS. His underlying numbers were solid, and his swing decisions were outstanding 2025 will see Smith a larger role on the club, stepping into the large shoes left behind by Joc Pederson. His spring numbers seem to only grow this storyline, with a .298 batting average, and .882 OPS across 19 games.

Breakout Pitchers

Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, - Jake Oliver

Pfaadt is still quite young as he's only 26 years old and in just his third MLB season, but his second full season. He threw by far the most innings on the D-backs starting rotation last year with 181.2 innings. He struck out more than a batter an inning with 185.

He did all of that with a sparkling FIP of 3.61, an xFIP of 3.58, and an xERA of 3.78—all vastly better than his real 4.71 ERA. Suffice to say, there seems to have been some bad luck for Pfaadt last year, and with a fresh season, better control, and better location, it wouldn't be a shock to see him fulfill his potential.

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, - Jack Sommers

Eduardo Rodriguez is a veteran with past success and is not a breakout candidate in the traditional sense. But he's healthy and recovered from the lat strain suffered last year and is a sleeper to have a good season. He looked sharp in spring training.

Drey Jameson, RHP, - Alex D'Agostino

Jameson’s stuff looks to be in the best state it’s been so far in the young righty’s major league career. Though beginning the season with Triple-A Reno in order to ramp up towards a heavier workload, Jameson’s services could be called on early, especially with injuries to other key relievers.

If he can hone his command just a touch, his triple-digit fastball and sharp breaking pitches (combined with a high level of confidence) could afford him more high-leverage results than expected.

Brandon Pfaadt, RHP, - Aaron Hughes

The Diamondbacks' former top pitching prospect turned playoff savior has seen his share of struggles in his young MLB career. Across two big league seasons failed to post a positive ERA+, while still managing to be Arizona's most consistent starter in 2024. Part of this is his incredible ability to post, pitching in 181.2 innings last season.

His 2024 FIP of 3.61, compared to an absurdly high 4.71 ERA, leaves quite a bit of room for improvement on luck alone. High home run numbers also could see a return to the median, especially as the majority of long-balls against him have come on his best pitch, the sweeper.

This is largely due to very poor location errors, but these seem to be far fewer, even through a spring where he left much to be desired. Pfaadt has claimed the Diamondbacks' fifth rotation spot and is set to run with it, and 2025 could be the year where he finally cements himself as the fantastic pitcher he's shown himself capable of being.