Can D-backs' Corbin Burnes Resurrect his Dominance vs Rays?

The Diamondbacks' ace will have a chance to truly hit his stride at home.

Apr 18, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) reacts as he walks back to the dugout after the second inning of a baseball game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks squandered a pair of opportunities to walk off a tight, extra-inning affair with the Tampa Bay Rays on Wednesday night, falling 7-6.

With the series knotted up at one a piece, right-hander Corbin Burnes will take the mound for the rubber match in search of a series win Thursday night. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m.

Pitching Matchup

RHP Corbin Burnes (4.64 ERA)

Burnes has had somewhat of a bumpy takeoff in his first four starts for Arizona. His 4.64 ERA and 5.42 FIP are concerning, though it is still a small sample size. However, Burnes' dominant cutter has not emerged in as dangerous a manner as it's been known to in the past.

Burnes' overall whiff rate is down to 21.1% and his strikeout rate has plummeted to 18.5%. In fact, the whiff rate on his cutter mirrors that of his overall arsenal at 21.1%, and opponents are slugging .639 against it.

The swing-and-miss on the cutter has only been lower once — during the 2024 season that saw him struggle the most since emerging as an ace in 2020.

Burnes' K/9 is down to 7.17, the lowest of his career. His walks per nine are up to 3.80, the highest of his career. All of these factors add up to overall poor results, and underlying metrics that support those results.

But on the flipside, despite all of these less-than-encouraging signs, Burnes has still managed to deliver back-to-back Quality Starts, regardless of how hard he has been hit in the early innings, or how many batters he's walked.

He's gone six innings in both of his previous two starts, facing the Brewers and dangerous Cubs, with his only real blemish in his last start being an early two-run shot by Carson Kelly. After that, Burnes cruised through four scoreless innings.

All of this to say, that while Burnes hasn't looked much like his Cy Young self in 2025, even a struggling ace has done enough to keep Arizona within reach of a win. If the righty can settle in and begin to find his rhythm — and his cutter — again, the D-backs could be in for some excellent pitching as the season progresses.

Burnes has faced the Rays just three times, each as a member of the Orioles in 2024. He's gone six innings or more in all three starts, and has allowed three or fewer runs each time, with three Quality Starts, one win, one no-decision, and one Tough Loss (a recorded pitcher loss in which he throws a QS).

RHP Drew Rasmussen (0.87 ERA)

Across from Burnes, the Rays will turn to right-hander Drew Rasmussen, the far-and-away best member of their 2025 rotation to date.

While Rasmussen has not completed the sixth inning in any of his four starts, they've each been dominant. He's surrendered just two runs on the entire season, and has allowed only 17 baserunners over 20.2 innings, on 12 hits and five walks. All 12 have been singles, as he has not given up an extra-base hit or home run once in 2025.

Rasmussen throws five pitches, but focuses mainly on a hard cutter, with an upper-90s four-seam and sinker paired with it. He does throw occasional sweepers and curveballs, but those have accounted for only 14% of his total pitches thrown this season.

He's a little bit of everything — velocity, punchout ability (28.9% K rate), and an above-average ground ball rate (46.9%). He does occasionally give up hard contact, but it has yet to turn into slug, as his expected slug against (.301), expected batting average against (.229) and expected ERA (2.48) are all elite numbers.

The Diamondbacks will have their work cut out for them facing Rasmussen. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the only member of Arizona's lineup with a hit against the right-hander, dating back to his days in Toronto. He has four hits, including a homer against Rasmussen.

Gurriel has struggled greatly in 2025. He recorded a base hit in Wednesday's game, but is slashing .172/.194/.345 with four homers, three walks and 11 strikeouts.

Corbin Carroll remains red-hot, as he clubbed two homers Wednesday night, raising his slash to .327/.404/.693, and tying the major league lead in homers with nine on the year.

Tim Tawa has showed promise both at the plate and defensively, earning himself a larger chunk of playing time until All-Star Ketel Marte is ready to reclaim his place at second base — though it might be difficult to justify sending Tawa back to the minors when that does happen.

Bullpen Note

Right-hander Justin Martinez appears to be recovered sufficiently from the shoulder fatigue that had kept him down for an extended period. On Wednesday, he tossed a 1-2-3 inning on 12 pitches, topping out at 101 MPH.

It's unknown how heavily manager Torey Lovullo will be able to use Martinez going forward, or if he's available for Thursday's game, but it was an encouraging sign to see the young flamethrower take the mound with such ease Wednesday night.

Expect Ryan Thompson, Drey Jameson, and Juan Morillo to all be unavailable for this game. Low-leverage reliever J.P. Feyereisen and Ryne Nelson are well-rested. Lefty Jalen Beeks had the night off Wednesday, which is a good thing, as he is on pace for 95 innings pitched.

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