How Critical are the Next Two Games Vs. the Dodgers for the D-backs?

A slow start has put Arizona in a precarious position in their quest to get back to the postseason. What does history and precedent say about their chances at this stage?

Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (12) scores after a wild pitch by Los Angeles / Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY

With already dwindling playoff odds in this still young season, it may be critical that the Diamondbacks win at least one of the next two games against the Dodgers to avoid digging too deep a hole to climb out of.

The D-backs have a 13-17 record, and have two more games against the Dodgers in this three-game series before a day off on Thursday.  If they manage a split over  the next two games they’ll be at 14-18, with a .438 W%

 Since the Diamondbacks came into the league in 1998, there have been 243 teams with a W% equal to or less than .438 through their first 32 games. (2020 removed) All data and percentages that follow are courtesy of stathead.com span finder.  

18 of those 243 teams made the Postseason, or 7.4%. That included seven wild card teams, eight division winners, two Pennant winners, and one World Series champion, the 2019 Washington Nationals.  Just three teams made it to the World Series, or 1.2%

Should the Diamondbacks drop each of the next two games however, their record would fall to 13-19, with a W% of .406.  The pool of teams to make the playoffs after such a poor start is more than cut in half, to just eight, or 3.3%

That shortened list includes three wild card teams, four division champions, and one Pennant winner. The Houston Astros started the 2005 season 12-20, .375 W%, and made it to the World Series before being swept by the Chicago White Sox.  

This is not the worst start for the Diamondbacks in their franchise history. Currently there are six seasons that began worse through 30 games.  Arizona did not make the playoffs in any of those seasons however. The worst start to a season through 30 games in which the D-backs made the Postseason was in 2011 when they began 14-16, but went 80-52 the rest of the way to capture the NL West.

In the Mike Hazen/ Torey Lovullo era of management the D-backs have typically gotten off to good starts. They’ve been over .500 through 30 games in five of their eight seasons running the ball club.  In their two previous playoff appearances in 2017 and 2023, the team started 18-14.

Precedent does not favor the Diamondbacks, but their playoff chances are not yet down so far that they can't recover. They're dealing with a slew of injuries, some of which they may not have handled as well as they'd like, has made things more difficult. Injuries or not, they need to play better starting the next two games.

A journey of a thousand miles begins with one step. That first step could be playing the Dodgers more evenly in this series. They've done it before, as evidenced by their 3-0 sweep of L.A. in the NLDS last year. There is no time like the present to take that first step back towards contention.