3 Things D-backs Must do to Pull Off Opening Day Upset vs Dodgers

The Arizona Diamondbacks will not get a soft landing into the 2026 regular season. They'll begin the year with a three-game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium.

For as star-studded as the Los Angeles lineup may be, baseball offers nothing if not a wealth of surprises. On any given day, an underdog can either be blown out or take a massive upset win.

To call the D-backs winning at Dodger Stadium on opening night a massive upset would be an understatement.

But it is, of course, quite possible. As the saying goes, you can't predict baseball. Below are the three keys to Arizona engineering such an upset over the Dodgers:

1: Diamondbacks Must Limit Free Baserunners

Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) reacts after allowing two runs against the Brewers during a spring training game at Salt River Fields on March 20, 2026. | Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It's a good rule of thumb for any baseball game, but it's particularly important to not allow free runners against a dominant Dodger lineup.

It will be extremely difficult to prevent top-order stars like Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman from collecting extra-base hits or leaving the yard. What will be important is that the damage remains as minimal as possible. That means keeping the ball in the zone, limiting walks, and playing sharp defense on day one of 162.

"I don't want to be out in Dodger Stadium having guys not throw the ball where they need to," manager Torey Lovullo said. "Next thing you know, a solo home run becomes a three-run home run."

Keeping base traffic to a minimum will also allow opening day starter Zac Gallen to work as deep into the game as can be expected for the first start of the season — which, in turn, will also task a shaky D-backs bullpen with collecting fewer outs.

2: Diamondbacks Must Bring Patient Offensive Approach

Feb 27, 2026; Scottsdale, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto (18) throws against the San Francisco Giants in the first inning at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images | Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a tough starter to face. But the Dodgers' pitching weakness in recent seasons has been their bullpen.

LA put forward a 4.85 Cactus League ERA from their relief corps, and ranked 21st in MLB in reliever ERA during the 2025 regular season.

Even considering the Dodgers' recent addition of Edwin Diaz — who will be limited to the eighth or ninth inning — the Diamondbacks' window to attack LA's staff is in the middle relief frames.

What that means is, as much as Arizona tends to be aggressive at the plate in the first inning, the D-backs need to bring a patient approach. They must force Yamamoto to labor, if possible, and avoid handing LA's starter efficient outs.

Considering starters tend to have shorter outings on opening day, Arizona can't allow Yamamoto to extend his into the later innings of the game.

3: Bullpen, Bullpen, Bullpen

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher paul sewald — Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Paul Sewald during spring training workouts at Salt River Fields on Feb. 16, 2026, in Scottsdale. | Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Diamondbacks need a strong showing from their bullpen if they want to win on Thursday night. There is no way around it.

Regardless of whether Gallen's outing is strong, Arizona will either have to keep the game within striking distance or hold a lead — something that has been quite difficult for their battered bullpen in recent seasons.

Even if Arizona were to take a monstrous lead early on, the Dodgers' lineup is capable of fireworks at any point in time. And the D-backs' bullpen is largely comprised of familiar faces — faces who helped contribute to a bottom-six relief ERA in both 2024 and 2025.