Diamondbacks 2025 Player Projections: Corbin Carroll

Fresh off a stellar second half in 2024, Carroll is projected to be the team's best player in 2025 and lead the team in multiple categories

Sep 15, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) reacts after scoring in the eighth inning during a game against the Milwaukee Brewers at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images | Allan Henry-Imagn Images

This article is part of a series reviewing the projections for each member of the Arizona Diamondbacks 40-man roster, as well as select prospects and non-roster invitees. The order of presentation was chosen using a random number generator.

The projection is comprised of the average of ZiPS and Steamer rate statistic projections, which can be found on FanGraphs. The playing time projections are our own, based on our estimates. As the D-backs make further moves throughout the offseason, the playing time projections will be updated, and relevant counting stats such as home runs and WAR can be updated.

Corbin Carroll, Left-Handed Right Fielder, Age 24

Corbin Carroll projections for 2025 with the Arizona Diamondbacks and his career numbers compared to MLB average hitters | Jake Oliver

Why Carroll may outperform the projection

Much has been written about how much Carroll struggled in the first half of the season last year as he tried to change his swing to fix a hole. There's not much to say other than it happened, he found his way out of it, and finished the season with aplomb.

But, thanks to that rough first half, it does help explain why Carroll is slated for a much lower batting average and OPS than one might expect. Don't forget, 2024 was essentially Carroll's sophomore season, in which slumps often happen that year.

One obvious reason for Carroll to widely exceed this batting line is due to just how excellent that second half last year was. Over 64 games, he hit .259 but had an OPS of .919, over 100 points higher than the projection for this year. He homered 17 times and stole 17 bases.

That was despite a BABIP of .265 which indicates that he should've been even better than that considering his attributes and the positive regression to the mean.

It's also quite unlikely that Carroll will have such a low and unlucky BABIP of just .256 over the whole season, in large part due to his excellent speed and elite bat speed/power.

Despite all of the struggles at the plate, he still put up a 3.7 aWAR season. In 2023, he put up a season of 5.4 aWAR. So, provided he just improves slightly at the plate over the course of the whole season in 2025 from 2024, he should easily match or exceed the projected 4.6 WAR season he is set for.

Plus, the D-backs seem set on having him only play right field instead of bouncing between centerfield and right field. One look at the stats show that is a major coup for Carroll despite any admittance that it played a factor in his struggles.

Last year when he played centerfield, he hit just .207 with an OPS of .612 over 78 games. In 76 games at right field, he hit a vastly better .256 and an OPS of .886. Plus, his glove profiles better in right field, so having him play there full-time should only help him perform better.

Two last things that should help him perform better than the projection is that despite his struggles last year, he walked more than and struck out less than the year prior.

In 2023, he walked 8.8% of the time and in 2024, he increased that to 10.7%. In 2023, he struck out 19.4% of the time and he lowered that slightly to 19% in 2024. So, if he can continue that trend, he will get on base more which helps his OBP and OPS, and strike out less allowing him to put more balls in play and utilize his MLB-best base running speed and ability.

Why Carroll might underperform the projection

As no one saw coming until Spring Training, Carroll struggled mightily for over half of the season last year. Should that happen again, then Carroll will likely fall well short of these projections, including the potential for 26 home runs.

His OBP did fall from .362 in 2023 to a measly .322. His OPS+ fell from 133 to 107 and his infield fly ball rate soared almost nine percent from 11.7% to 20.2%. If that stays the same or increases at all, it puts Carroll that much more at risk of doing worse than he did in 2024 or according to these projections.

Perhaps the D-backs are forced to play Carroll in centerfield and that is indeed a real issue compared to the hypothesis. That would be yet another factor that could cause Carroll to nosedive below these projections as centerfield does take a different set of preparation, physical, and mental toll on the player.

Summary

For as much as Carroll struggled last year, the vast majority of his advanced stats fell closely in line with his performance from 2023. There shouldn't be much fear that he endures another extreme and lengthy slump like he did last year.

However, there are certainly factors, including the dreaded bad luck, that could cause it to happen. But, even if it did, Carroll would still be over a 3-WAR player most likely as he was last year.

Thus, in the end, Carroll should be close to these projections and with a tad of extra luck and a change in his infield pop-fly rate for the better, could exceed these projections and put up another 5-WAR season like in 2023.

Truly, to just reach these projections, Carroll just needs a similar year to last year which is not asking for a lot aside from a tad more power.

The Arizona Diamondbacks will go as far as Corbin Carroll takes them on offense. In his third full season, he should be fully adjusted to MLB pitching and be ready to take charge of the D-backs and get back to his All-Star and MVP caliber ways this season.

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