Taking Stock of Diamondbacks at the Halfway Point in the Season

Arizona Diamondbacks General Manager Mike Hazen has stated repeatedly that it is his intention to buy at the July 31 trade deadline if his team is in a position to contend for Postseason spot. Owner Ken Kendrick has indicated the same.

But those assertions have always come with the caveat that the team needs to play themselves into contention by playing winning baseball.

Now at roughly the halfway point in the season, through 80 games, the D-backs are 41-39, 3.0 games out of the NL Wild Card. That's hardly an insurmountable gap, but there are five teams ahead of them just to capture the third Wild Card position, and several of them have the season head-to-head tie-breaker advantage.

NL Standings through games of June 25 | Sports Illustrated

The various projection websites that create playoff odds reports see a dimming chance for the D-backs. The composite average from Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and Baseball-Reference works out to a win total of 83 and a 21% chance to capture a Wild Card spot.

Getting on a run to vault into a stronger position has proven to be an elusive task, despite having the third-best offense in MLB scoring 5.16 runs per game. The pitching staff and overall run prevention, including team defense, has faltered to allow the fifth-highest total, 5.09 runs per game. That's limited the team to a season-high five-game winning streak, which they've done twice.

The D-backs have had a slew of injuries that are now impacting their chances as well. To be clear however, the run prevention issues pre-dated the onset of injuries. Through June 1 the D-backs' starting pitcher ERA was 4.51 and ranked 26 in MLB. That was the date Corbin Burnes came out of the rotation with an elbow injury. 25 days later the starting pitcher's ERA is 4.48 and ranks 25 in MLB.

The bullpen ERA prior to the onset of injury for co-closers A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez on April 17 was 3.48, and ranked 13 in MLB. Puk has not pitched since, and is out for the year and well into next having had elbow surgery.

Martinez pitched sporadically, and not very effectively after that date due to shoulder fatigue. Then he injured his elbow and also required season-ending surgery. Martinez has a similar timeline to Puk, projecting a return sometime late in 2026 at best.

Since April 18, the Arizona bullpen has produced a 5.64 ERA, the second-worst number in the league. There can be no doubt that the Puk and Martinez injuries have had the deepest negative impact on the team.

At the same time, those injuries did not cause the implosion of previously-counted-on veterans such as Joe Mantiply, Kevin Ginkel and Ryan Thompson. Nor do they excuse a parade of largely inconsistent relievers who have been tasked with filling the breach.

Of the top 12 relievers in innings pitched for the team since April 18, only two have an ERA under four. Shelby Miller has a 2.63 ERA since that date, and Jalen Beeks has pitched to a 3.91 ERA. Injury impacted the depth here as well however, as Cristian Mena, Christian Montes De Oca, and Tommy Henry also suffered season-ending injuries.

On top of all the pitching injuries and run prevention issues, now the position player group has started to take on blow after blow. Catcher Gabriel Moreno went on the IL retroactive to June 16 with a hairline fracture in his metacarpal bone below his left pointer finger.

Corbin Carroll followed Moreno to the IL retroactive to June 21 with a chip fracture in his left wrist suffered on a hit-by-pitch June 19. Those were already two horrifying injuries for the team. Then on Monday night both Eugenio Suarez (hand contusion) and Josh Naylor (sore shoulder) came out of the game with injuries.

Naylor returned on Wednesday and homered. Suarez took BP in the cage Wednesday and reported feeling no pain. He was scheduled to get an MRI on Thursday in Phoenix, but there is some question as of this writing whether or not he will proceed to get that imaging. He feels he can play on Friday, according to reporting from Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

How much longer the offense can continue to make up for the poor run prevention remains to be seen. What's clear however is the team simply cannot afford to lose Suarez, or any other top run producer before Moreno and Carroll are able to come back.

Hazen, speaking to Jesse Rogers of ESPN said "I think we're going to have to stay healthy from this point moving forward. I do think there's a critical mass of injuries that happens that we would have to at least be mindful of, but I still think we have every opportunity to be competitive and we're going to get these guys back."

Through it all, Manager Torey Lovullo and his coaching staff have kept the team playing hard and competing, often staging comebacks. They've showed unity and have far from given up. The above elicitation of challenges is by no means a signal that fans should give up either. It's a 162-game season, not 80.

The D-backs have 23 games between now and July 23, by which point Hazen will need to have mostly finalized his position with regards to buy, sell, or make some combination of both.

If they go on a strong run and improve their position, expect him to buy as much as possible with a limited pool of sellers. To date there are just seven teams that can be classified as clear-cut, should-be sellers at the deadline.

On the other hand, if the D-backs crash over the next four weeks and their situation significantly worsens, then expect them to start selling. They have seven players who are free agents at the end of 2025. Any or even all of them could be on the trading block in the worst case scenario.

Beyond the potential return of prospects or even major-league-ready players, there are cost savings to be had, which would allow the team to work towards retooling for 2026. The table below estimates those savings over the final two months of the season. Saving that money is not the team's intention. They would rather buy than sell, but if they do sell, this is what they might save.

D-backs pending free agents and potential | Jack Sommers

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