When Will the D-backs Hitters Improve and by How Much?

The fact that the Diamondbacks are in a deep offensive slump is well documented by just about everyone that follows the team. Over their last six games they've scored just nine runs. Telescoping out to the last 14 games they've averaged just 2.8 R/G while batting .223 with a .597 OPS.

It can be difficult when a team is struggling to hit to maintain perspective. Obviously the D-backs have hit much better than this in the past. They averaged 5.0 runs per game while batting .248 with a .721 OPS through May 13th. They may not be as good as that, but they'll hit better than they have the last two weeks. The question is when will that happen, and by how much?

That timing is impossible to predict of course. The best we can do is look at individual players and see how they are performing against their "expected" statistics, and what their projections are going forward. Below are evaluations of each hitter.

The expected stats in the table below are courtesy of Baseball Savant. They publish xBA, xSlug, and xwOBA, or weighted on base percentage. xwOBA is a catch-all metric designed to measure total offensive production. It's set to the scale of On Base Percentage.

The expected metrics are based on batted ball data and the quality of contact, as well as the actual walks and strikeouts. Tables and further explanations can be found here. The league average woBA is .309. In 2023 league average was .318. Scoring and offense are down across the board this year.

Also note that league-wide the .317 xwWOBA is 8 points higher than the actual so far in 2024. I have made the adjustment to align the numbers in the presentation below. The table below is sorted by the projections are for the Rest of Season, which can also be found at Fangraphs.

D-backs wOBA, xwWOBA, and Rest of Season Projections | Jack Sommers

Joc Pederson, Christian Walker, and Ketel Marte have been the best hitters on the team this year as measured by wOBA. These three players are also projected to be the best three hitters going forward to form the top tier.

In Pederson's case, his xwOBA is significantly lower than his actual wOBA, signaling that some regression to the mean may be in order for him. Conversely Walker and Marte maybe have been a bit unlucky year to date as their xwWOBA is higher by .13 and .21 respectively.

Corbin Carroll is projected to have a .336 wOBA the rest of the way. The projections have not caught up with the reality of his sophomore slump it seems. While his xwOBA is significantly higher than his wOBA, indicating some bad luck, the .292 xwWOBA is still well below the league average .309.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr, and Gabriel Moreno are both projected to be much better going forward, but their well below average wOBA and xwOBA are in almost perfect alignment, meaning they've gotten the results they've deserved.

Jake McCarthy's .332 wOBA is the 4th best on the team and is deserved, with an equal xwWOBA. His projected .319 wOBA the rest of the way is a slight step down from that level, but still above league average.

Eugenio Suarez is in trouble. His .263 wOBA exactly matches his expected wOBA. There is no poor luck involved in his case. Just too many strikeouts and too much poor contact. The projection still comes out to a league average .309. League average proudction is the best one can hope from Suarez going forward.

Randal Grichuk has hit for decent average, but has not provided the power that was hoped for. His projected wOBA is essentially the same as his actual wOBA.

Blaze Alexander has the 5th best wOBA on the team but no hitter has a bigger gap between xwOBA and wOBA. He and Kevin Newman are both projected to be below average with .293 wOBA going forward.

The sample sizes for Alek Thomas and Geraldo Perdomo are too small, but they are both expected to return from the injured list over the next few weeks, so they are included in the table with their projections.

Pavin Smith and Tucker Barnhart both have relatively small sample sizes to work with. Smith projects to be on par with McCarthy and Perdomo, but his results and even xwOBA to date still lag well below average. Barnhart is a backup catcher and is not being relied on for his offense.

Summary

The D-backs will certainly hit better at some point than they have over the last couple of weeks. How much better, and whether they can at least achieve their projections going forward remains to be seen. Carroll and Gurriel Jr. might be the best bets to see significant improvement based on projections.

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