5 Player Comparisons Put Diamondbacks in Elite Company

Every year Dan Szymborski rolls out his ZiPS projections for each team one by one. He recently published the Arizona Diamondbacks ZiPS. One of the most fun features is the Top Near-Age Offensive Comps section of his.

In the world of player projections, statistically comparable players, or "comps," are commonly used to flesh out a player's profiles.

As Szymborski explains in his annual breakdown of how ZiPS are created, he first establishes a baseline for the player using recent performance data. Then finding comparable players (offense only) from a database of over 300,000 players are used help see where the player is going.

Reaching out to Szymborski directly, he told me, "The comps are for the baseline 'where the player currently is.' So ZiPS starts with a baseline for a player, and then compares it to every similarly calculated baseline in the database."

Top 5 Most Interesting Comps for Diamondbacks Players

Note that the stat lines below do not represent the projection for the comparable players against the projection for the Diamondbacks player in question. Rather they are just showing partial stat lines for the ages immediately proceeding the year/age being forecast.

To see projections for 2026 for the D-backs players you can visit the original projection page linked above in the first paragraph, or see my summary recently published.

Corbin Carroll, Age 25

Corbin Carroll won NL rookie of the year in 2023, and bounced back from a tough first half in 2024 to emerge once again as one of the top outfielders in the league. Voted to the starting lineup of the NL All-Star team in 2025, Carroll is on a terrific path.

The below table from Baseball Reference shows the comparison to his top three comps, Barry Bonds, Andrew McCutchen and Grady Sizemore.

Don't be thrown off by the batting average gap, as the current league average BA is far lower than earlier seasons. Rather note the proximity of the park and league adjusted OPS+ (100 = league average, higher is better). Pretty exciting company!

Corbin Carroll top 3 near-age comps | Jack Sommers

Ketel Marte, Age 32

Marte's top three comps are equally impressive. They include two Hall of Famers in George Brett and Ryne Sandberg, as well as Chase Utley, who is on the current HOF ballot that should be in as well, in this writer's opinion.

Ketel Marte top 3 Near Age Comps | Jack Sommers

Geraldo Perdomo, Age 26

Seeing Joe Morgan pop out as one of Geraldo Perdomo's near age comps was stunning. Morgan was a very good player to begin with, but didn't reach superstar status until 1972. Willie Randolph was the starting second baseman for the Yankees during their run in the 1970's, and Stan Hack was a four-time All-Star from the 1930's and 40's who walked twice as much as he struck out. Sound familiar?

Geraldo Perdomo top 3 near age comps | Jack Sommers

Corbin Burnes, Age 31

Comparing starting pitchers across time is especially difficult because of the changing nature of the role. Looking past innings pitched totals and raw counting stats however, once adjusted for the era they played in and the different run scoring environments, the comps that emerge for Burnes are a very interesting cross-section.

Fans will be more familiar with Jake Arrieta, and perhaps a young Bartolo Colon (who was very different from the latter day version you see on YouTube clips). Dizzy Trout was a star pitcher for the Detroit Tigers in the 1940's.

Corbin Burnes top 3 near age comps | Jack Sommers

Merrill Kelly, age 37

The inclusion of Hall of Fame knuckleballer Phil Niekro in the list below is admittedly bit of a head-scratcher. But one thing he, Luis Tiant, and John Lackey all have in common with Merrill Kelly is the ability to deceive batters and induce weak contact. Otherwise the run prevention numbers as expressed by ERA+ are all pretty similar too however.

Merrill Kelly top 3 near age comps | Jack Sommers