What Would a Hunter Greene Trade Cost the D-backs?

In the Diamondbacks' pursuit of starting pitching this offseason, the possibility of a trade as opposed to a free agent signing looms large, especially if they want to be able to bring in a potential front line pitcher.

Hunter Greene is a Potential Trade Target for the Arizona Diamondbacks

One such possibility would be Hunter Greene of the Cincinnati Reds.

A few weeks ago Mark Sheldon of MLB.com put forth the possibility that the Reds might actually consider trading their star pitcher in an effort to bolster their offense.

The Reds had just a team 90 OPS+ in 2025, compared to a 119 ERA+. Sheldon pointed out how the Reds finished in the bottom half of the league in most key offensive categories.

Sheldon went on to make clear that, "This can't be a salary dump for prospects, however. If Greene is traded, Major League talent would have to come back to make it work."

Just How Good is Hunter Greene?

Greene has been enormously productive the last two seasons when healthy. In 45 starts, 258 innings across 2024-25 he's gone 16-9 with a 2.76 ERA.

That's come with strong peripheral metrics as well, including a 3.05 xERA and 3.39 FIP. He's been worth 8.6 aWAR (the average of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs WAR).

Greene averaged 99.5 with his fastball and has a devastating slider to go with it. His stuff is rated as the best of any pitcher in MLB with at least 100 innings pitched in 2025. His Stuff+ metric of 124 was way out in front of second place Garrett Crochet and Tarik Skubal who scored 116.

The highest-ranked Diamondback was Ryne Nelson with 108 Stuff+. No other D-back was over 100. There is no doubt the Diamondbacks could use a pitcher with Greene's stuff to change the dynamic of their pitching staff.

What is Hunter Greene's Trade Value?

In 2025 Greene only made 19 starts, due to a groin injury. He first injured it in May, and perhaps came back too soon. He re-injured the Groin in June and missed two months as a result.

Greene also missed five weeks of 2024 with elbow soreness, returning in late September to make two short outings. Greene has never thrown more than 150.1 innings in his four year career.

He will only be 26 in 2026 however, and it's notable that 2025's injury was not arm-related. Still, any assessment of his future value has to take into account injury risk.

The table below takes that risk to create a WAR projection over four years of 11.5. Greene is on a very team-friendly contract with a total value of just 61 million over four years. Utilizing a value of $9 million per WAR, I calculated Greene's value over contract amount to be $42.5 million

Hunter Green Trade Calculator | Jack Sommers

The fact that there is a team option "off-ramp" in 2029 should injury or underperformance get in the way of Greene achieving these modest projections is enticing. Only $42 million of the contract is guaranteed, which truly minimizes the injury risk of trading for Greene.

What Would it Take to Pry Hunter Greene Loose from the Reds?

As stated above, prospects that are unproven at the major league level are not going to get it done. Full stop. That being the case, focus must turn to the major league roster for a player that would fit the Red's needs.

The D-backs are not trading Corbin Carroll of course. Geraldo Perdomo just put up a seven WAR season and is starting a four-year, $45 million extension.

He is the captain of the defense and the heart and soul of the team. He's not going anywhere. Gabriel Moreno is the only catcher they have and is just entering his first year of arbitration.

Simple process of elimination lands this exercise on none other than Ketel Marte. He certainly would offer the impact bat the Reds are looking for. The D-backs have been reported to be willing to listen to offers for him.

That report came on the heels of Marte taking a vacation after the All-Star break which resulted in him being placed on the unpaid restricted list during his absence. That episode caused a great deal of disruption to the team and to Marte himself.

Taking a look at Marte's value calculator reveals an interesting dynamic. His projected value over contract comes out to just under $33 million, less than Green by $9 million.

Marte is coming off a 4.5 aWAR season of his own in a season in which he missed 36 games, mostly due to a hamstring injury in April. Marte started just 99 games at second base and 21 at DH in 2025.

He was enormously productive when on the field, batting .283/.376/.517, with 28 homers and 72 RBI. That was good for a 142 OPS+.

The projection table above sees him being able to repeat 2025 value numbers in 2026, but then begin a slow decline into his middle 30's just as his contract begins to get expensive for ages 34-36.

Summary

It would be a hard pill to swallow for most Diamondbacks fans to see Marte traded. If the team does trade him however, Greene is on the upper end of the most valuable pitchers they could conceivably obtain for their mercurial second baseman.

This is the cost of doing business if you want to trade for an established top starting pitching with multiple years of control.

Whether the D-backs would be willing to go down this road is dependent on multiple factors, not the least of which is their confidence in the minor league depth at middle infield.

You can hear more about this trade proposal at the Snakes Territory podcast.