Why Merrill Kelly Signing was a Necessary Risk for Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks made a move that carries some risk, but it had to be done.

Jul 26, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) delivers a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

On Sunday morning, the Arizona Diamondbacks made a move that many fans had been clamoring to see — re-signing reliable veteran and long-time D-backs starting pitcher Merrill Kelly to a two-year reunion deal.

Related: Diamondbacks Bringing Back Beloved Starting Pitcher

The deal is worth $40 million over those two years. This is much higher than what Kelly had been making previously. After costing Arizona an average of $9 million per season for the last two years, he'll be making more than double that from 2026-2027.

This, obviously, is a bit of a risk. Considering Kelly's age and recent history of some injuries, paying that much will always be looked at with a bit of a cautious air.

But this was still a move that brings necessary innings coverage and a solid history of consistent success.

Merrill Kelly Was Risky, but Necessary Re-sign

Sep 21, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (23) throws the ball during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Kelly pitched to a sturdy 3.52 ERA and 3.76 FIP in the totality of his 2025 season. For the Diamondbacks, he was on pace for a career year, with a 3.22 ERA over 22 starts.

With the exception of one ugly blowup against the New York Yankees in the Bronx, Kelly's worst outing was still one that generally gave the D-backs a chance to win a baseball game.

However, Kelly stumbled a bit down the stretch. After being traded to the Texas Rangers at the Deadline, he recorded just a 4.23 ERA. He's now entering his age-37 season, and has dealt with some injuries in recent seasons — a shoulder strain in 2024 and a persistent cramping issue.

With that said, Kelly does provide what Arizona needs more than anything — reliable innings coverage.

While health isn't a complete guarantee, Kelly generally is able to deliver five-plus innings each and every start. 2024 is the only season in recent history he hasn't provided 150 or more frames.

And while $40 million isn't exactly a cheap contract, it's about as low-risk, low-cost and low-commitment as it gets, outside of a signing like Michael Soroka (who has significantly worse numbers in recent seasons and significantly more injury history).

The D-backs needed to fill rotation spots, and Kelly will do that and more. As long as he remains healthy, one can almost always count on Merrill the Mainstay delivering five, six, or even seven quality innings.

There is absolutely risk in doing this deal for such a steep upcharge, but perhaps a return to his home city might fuel Kelly to another high-end season at the top of the D-backs' rotation. They certainly need it.