Projected Merrill Kelly Contract Could Make D-backs Reunion Harder

Will the Arizona Diamondbacks shell out the necessary funds to manage a reunion with their former starter?

Sep 5, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (23) throws during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images | Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks will need to make some moves to bolster their rotation this offseason, and speculation of a reunion deal with veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly has been circulating, already.

There's merit to that speculation. Kelly himself was blunt about his willingness to return to Arizona.

Related Content: D-backs' Merrill Kelly Reveals True Thoughts About Trade Deadline

But Kelly wouldn't only be a solid veteran fit for Arizona's rotation after spending parts of six seasons with the D-backs to a consistent level of success. He'd be an option that would require a less-than-astronomical cost to sign.

With a payroll decrease coming, that is an important factor.

But a recent article from ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel projected Kelly to receive a two-year deal worth $35 million. While not exactly an ace-level contract, that might provide some difficulty for Arizona.

Projected Merrill Kelly Contract May Make D-backs Reunion Tough

Sep 21, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (23) throws the ball during the first inning against the Miami Marlins at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

"Kelly is one of the softest-tossing right-handed starters in baseball, averaging under 92 mph on his four-seamer, but he finds success due to his feel for a deep repertoire headlined by a changeup that's his most-used pitch," McDaniel wrote.

"He missed about half of 2024 due to a strained shoulder but has otherwise thrown 150 to 200 innings per season since 2021. Kelly just turned 37 and doesn't have much margin for error to keep his ERA in the 3s, but he has the feel to eat up innings regardless of his raw stuff."

Kelly is still a valuable arm regardless, but there remains a question about how much Arizona would be willing to spend on someone of his age.

Diamondbacks On SI's Jack Sommers broke down Kelly's market value to the D-backs, looking at what the team would likely be willing to spend on Kelly.

By Sommers' estimation — not an internal report, to be clear — the D-backs would likely avoid a contract north of $30 million over two years, let alone $35 million.

Related Content: What is Merrill Kelly's Market Value to the Diamondbacks?

Again, does not necessarily mean it's out of the question, but if McDaniel's projected value is accurate, Kelly's market could very likely take him elsewhere, closing the door on a potential reunion.

There may be a chance Kelly takes a hometown discount, as the Arizona native had previously expressed his desire to return to his home state in the event of a trade before the Deadline, but at the late stages of his career, he may want to maximize his value.

But $35 million over two years would be quite the risk for the D-backs, signing a player in his age-37 season that has had a recent history of injuries.

Sommers also projects the D-backs to have somewhere between $27-37 million to spend. If nearly $20 million of that goes to Kelly, there won't be much to work with in terms of landing a top-line starter, closer or first baseman unless Arizona finds a way to swing multiple trades.