Diamondbacks at Brewers Game Preview June 19

In a battle of two first place teams, the Arizona Diamondbacks (43-29) will visit the Milwaukee Brewers (37-34) for the first of three games at American Family Field, first pitch is at 5:10 P.M. Arizona time.

The D-backs took two of three from the Cleveland Guardians over the weekend, but were routed in the finale Sunday 12-3. The Brewers had lost six in a row to fall out of first place, but then swept the Pirates three straight over the weekend to retake the top spot in the AL Central.

Lineups

As reported by Michael McDermott a few hours ago, the D-backs announced that centerfielder Alek Thomas had been recalled and Josh Rojas had been optioned to Triple-A Reno. After batting .195/.252/.327, 54 wRC+ in 123 PA, Thomas worked on his approach and mechanics and earned his way back by raking to the tune of .348/.409/.518. That was good for a 121 wRC+ or 21% better than league average. With Thomas in center field, the D-backs field their best possible outfield alignment with Corbin Carroll and Jake McCarthy flanking him in left and right field.

Christian Yelich has been red hot for the Brewers, going 10 for his last 22, .455 with four double and two homers. Two other Brewers hitters to keep an eye on tonight are Willy Adames and Raimel Tapia. Adames is 6-14, with two homers in his career against Merrill Kelly. Tapia is 7-15, .457 against Kelly. For his career Tapia has hit .343 against the D-backs, in 216 at bats, and been a .266 hitter against everyone else.

Pitching Matchup

Corbin Burnes, 5-4, 3.44 ERA, is making his 15th start of the year. While not quite as dominant this season as he's been in the previous, he's capable of shutting down any lineup at any time. He did just that the last time he faced the Diamondbacks, throwing eight shutout innings at Chase Field on April 11th, giving up just three hits and striking out eight.

Burnes K/9 on the season is down to 8.9, well off his career rate of 11.7. The Velocity on his trademark cutter is down about one MPH from his Cy Young season in 2021, and the spin rate has dropped about 100 RPM. As a result the pitch is somewhat more hittable, as batters have a .245 batting average against the pitch compared to under .200 in previous seasons. He still throws the pitch over 53% of the time however. Over his last four starts he's struck out 32 in 27 innings while giving up just seven runs for a 2.33 ERA.

Merrill Kelly, 8-3, 3.04 ERA is also posting up for the 15th time. Along with Zac Gallen, Kelly has been relatively consistent all year to form one of the best tandems in the league at the top of the rotation. He walked four batters in six innings in his last outing however, giving up three runs in a no decision. Walks were an issue for Kelly early in the year coming off the World Baseball Classic disruption. He walked 17 batters in his first 26 innings. Kelly got that under control, walking just 13 in his next 50 innings, but now has issued seven free passed in his last two games, 13.1 innings

Kelly has just a .249 BABIP against, (batting average on balls in play). The average starting pitcher in MLB has a .297 BABIP. Kelly's 38.8% hard hit rate is higher than the MLB average of 33.3% as well. All this means that he can't really afford to keep walking this many batters, as the hard contact he allows is eventually going to result in a higher hit rate. He'll need to offset that with a lower walk rate to maintain his current run prevention levels. It's notable that his FIP, (Fielding independent pitching) is 3.84, or 0.80 higher than his current ERA.

Bullpens:

Devin Williams has been a lights out closer for the Brewers this year, posting a 1.90 ERA and 12 saves. He had one bad game June 13th, giving up four runs to the Twins in a blown save and loss. Other than that he's given up only one other run all year on May 7th.

Torey Lovullo has been easing Scott McGough into a higher leverage, ninth inning role, but the D-backs still employ a closing "platoon" depending on matchups. The last time McGough gave up a run that wasn't the unearned Ghost Runner in the 10th inning was May 12th. His ERA is now 2.68 on the year. The other pitchers who might get a save opportunity are Andrew Chafin and Miguel Castro.