MLB Fact or Fiction Roundtable: Are the Dodgers Still World Series Favorites?

We've arrived at the Memorial Day checkpoint. Let's check in on five storylines where our perceptions may have changed since spring training.

Shohei Ohtani appears intent on capturing his first Cy Young Award this season. | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

MLB editor Will Laws posed five questions to some SI baseball experts about what we've learned from the past couple months and how things may have changed from our preseason perceptions.

1. The Dodgers should still be seen as World Series favorites.

Tom Verducci, senior writer: FACT. Don’t be swayed by small sample sizes. The Dodgers know how to run the marathon. They won World Series Game 7 last year because they used about a billion dollars worth of pitching in one game. And now they have another ace in Shohei Ohtani, who was rehabbing his elbow last year. Health permitting, the Dodgers have the most talent and are battle-tested. That said, always take the field over any one team. This is baseball.

Stephanie Apstein, senior writer: FACT. I mean, they haven't lost one since Baruch volleyball star George Santos was in office. I'll need them to have more than two months of .600 ball before I rule them out.

Ryan Phillips, MLB/NBA writer: FACT. The Dodgers have dealt with injuries and the weight of expectations to open the season as they try to repeat as champions. You could have said that about the first quarter of the 2025 campaign, too. Yet in the end, they wound up hoisting the Commissioner's Trophy anyway. Max Muncy and Andy Pages are currently carrying L.A.'s offense and the team is nevertheless one of the best in baseball without its top sluggers performing up to par. The Dodgers are still heavily favored to win the NL West despite a slow start. As long as they're relatively healthy in October, they'll be favored to win it all for a third consecutive season. 

Will Laws, MLB editor: FACT. They may not have the majors' best record and own the narrowest of division leads over the Padres, but they do have MLB's best run differential and the track record to instill confidence they'll figure it out, especially with Ohtani looking his best on the mound.

Kyle Koster, assistant managing editor/MLB news editor: FACT. Over the past five years the Dodgers have won over 100 regular season games three times. None of those has ended in them hoisting the World Series trophy. They accomplished their biggest goal after notching 93 wins two years ago and 98 in '25. A random three-game wild card series might be a concern, but if they haven't earned the benefit of the doubt by now with their championship mettle then they never will.

2. The Blue Jays will miss the playoffs.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has had a tough time leading a beleaguered Blue Jays club this season | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

TV: FACT. Injuries are mounting. Vlad Guerrero and George Springer are having down years. Those issues can improve, but it’s hard to make up huge chunks of ground in the AL East. Toronto started 21-27. In the wild card era, only one AL East team (and only 13 overall) made the postseason with so many losses in its first 48 games.

SA: FICTION. If they can stay afloat until Alejandro Kirk is back, which is looking like it might take until June, they'll be one of the six best teams in the AL by the end of the season.

RP: FICTION. We don't know what the Blue Jays will be yet because they've been crushed by injuries thus far. I can't bury them yet, because they have all the pieces to compete long term. Once Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes are back, we'll see what's what. As for now, they're only a few games out of the final wild-card spot despite being massively short-handed.

WL: FACT. The injury bug has bitten the Jays badly enough to the point where Daulton Varsho and his career 100 wRC+ is currently their No. 3 hitter. Varsho has actually been their best hitter, so it's not undeserved, but it's indicative that this may not be their year. The pitching staff's depth is being tested, too, and I don't trust 36-year-old Patrick Corbin and Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles to hold down the back of the rotation.

KK: FICTION. This is more about all of the other teams in the American League than the defending pennant winners, who have been pedestrian to this point. There's only one team coming out of the Central and West in my eyes so third place in the East—perhaps even 84 wins—might be enough.

3. The Yankees will make it back to the World Series.

Aaron Judge entered Thursday tied for third in the majors with 16 home runs. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

TV: FICTION. It could easily happen. The Yankees look great. Home run hitting teams win championships. The rotation has been rock solid. It’s just too early to call a team a lock for a pennant.

SA: FACT. It's probably dumb of me to take anyone over the field, and it's mean of Will to make us answer this right before we watch the Yankees take on the team with the AL's best record, the Rays, this weekend, but I think New York's rotation is going to make a lot of hitters very unhappy this October. 

RP: FACT. The Yankees have all the elements they need to get back to the World Series and they're 11 games above .500 without Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon throwing a single pitch. Meanwhile, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has started to wake up after an incredibly slow start. They have the second-best record in the American League behind the Rays, and should only get better. I like their chances. 

WL: FACT. They're a lock to make the playoffs in an AL that's as uninspiring as I've seen—the Yankees' +70 run differential is 30 runs better than the Rays', and at least 50 runs better than everyone else's—and from there, their battle-tested stars should take over in October.

KK: FICTION. While they certainly have the talent to do it, those pesky Rays present the exact type of matchup that could stir up the same malevolent ghosts that have plagued the pinstripes in the postseason. Tampa Bay's particular brand of small ball will put all types of pressure on a defense and make an already pressurized ALCS even more of a challenge for New York.

4. Three NL Central teams will make the playoffs.

Cardinals outfielder Jordan Walker is, at long last, looking like the slugger he's long been projected to be. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

TV: FACT. The NL Central is loaded with some of the best power arms (Jacob Misiorowski, Paul Skenes, Chase Burns, Bubba Chandler, etc,) and rising stars (Elly De La Cruz, Jackson Chourio, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Konnor Griffin, Jordan Walker, etc,) The Cubs are one of the most balanced teams in baseball who can win in many ways. Hey, the AL Central grabbed three spots in 2024. Why not the NL Central this year?

SA: FICTION. That would be fun, but it's hard to imagine that the Dodgers or the Padres will miss out, and the Phillies look like they might be on their way back, too. No, I suspect that despite the Cardinals' and Pirates' surprising starts, the NL Central playoff picture this year will look exactly like it did last year. 

RP: FICTION. I think the Brewers and Cubs can make it, but the Cardinals feel like a paper tiger. They're 28–19 but only have a +6 run differential, while the Reds and Pirates don't feel like full-fledged contenders. Can one of those three teams beat out the Phillies and Padres? That feels unlikely. 

WL: FICTION. I liked the sound of this before the Phillies roared back to life over the last week. In the wake of that, however, I think the Braves will be the only new NL playoff team this season.

KK: FICTION. Not if the Don Mattingly magic portends the summer ahead for the Phillies. Either San Diego or Los Angeles out of the West leaves only two for what has been the most competitive division in baseball. Plus, the Pirates and Reds have been trending in the wrong direction so all three of the remaining three would have to continue to stay hot.

5. Kyle Schwarber will hit 60 home runs.

Kyle Schwarber is on pace to more than 60 home runs this season, but can he keep it up throughout the year? | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

TV: FACT. Schwarber is one of the great streak hitters on the planet. He gets home runs in bunches like so few hitters. He hit 56 last year. In a calendar year through Tuesday, he crushed 60 homers. So why not?

SA: FICTION. Only because that's really hard to do. I bet he makes it close, though.

RP: FICTION. While I'd love my fellow Hoosier to etch his name into the record books, I don't see it happening. Schwarber has always been streaky with his power and if he's going to top 60 he can't afford a single down month. He's also only topped 38 homers three times in his career. I'll project him for 52.

WL: FACT. We just saw Cal Raleigh do the same last season, and he only had 16 at this time a year ago. Schwarber has 20 and knows his job for the Phillies is to draw walks and hit bombs when he does swing.

KK: FICTION. A look at the advanced metrics reveals that 60 is a lot of home runs. A lot has to go right for that to happen. But he will get close and the unknown variable of September callups on the mound makes it a real possibility. 

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