SF Giants rumors: Five potential trade packages for Shohei Ohtani
The SF Giants could be the talk of the trade deadline if president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is able to pull off a deal with the Los Angeles Angels to acquire two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani. While a deal may be unlikely, the Angels have begun listening to offers, and the Giants are one of the top potential landing spots. An Ohtani trade would truly be unprecedented in MLB history, and it's really difficult to gauge what the price should be for arguably the best player to be traded since Babe Ruth who is also slated to be a free agent at the end of the season.
So, rather than trying to build the perfect trade package, I decided to take a shot at covering the spectrum of offers the Giants could make. My goal is to span the range of least to most costly prospect packages that I could envision the Giants potentially parting with and the Angels potentially accepting.
(ordered from least to highest prospect cost)
Angels SP/DH Shohei Ohtani hits against the Astros at Angel Stadium. (2023)
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Potential SF Giants trade packages for Shohei Ohtani:
1. Carson Whisenhunt, Keaton Winn, Mason Black, Tristan Beck, Ryan Walker
It's difficult to set a floor for a potential deal, but upper minors pitching tends to have an inflated value within MLB front offices compared to outside analysts. Starting pitching is the hardest thing to acquire in modern MLB, and also is incredibly valuable. Given how the Angels have been so consistently burned in free agency with starting pitching, I could see the team's ownership being swayed by an offer that could make the team flush with pitching.
The Angels would rightfully be panned for this deal simply because they should be able to get a better offer from someone else. That said, the Angels would have starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson, José Suarez, Jaime Barria, Whisenhunt, Winn, and Black all under team control through at least 2025 (and in most cases through 2027). They would be in a position to build a great rotation going forward and would also have the depth to shop some of their arms to fill other holes on the roster and build a lineup around Mike Trout, Mickey Moniak, and Logan O'Hoppe.
Winn, Beck, and Walker would immediately join the Angels staff while Whisenhunt and Black could be in their rotation by September (although Whisenhunt's command would probably need to take a big jump).
This deal would shock me, but setting the floor in an unprecedented scenario like this is difficult. On one hand, this package seems insulting to propose for arguably the greatest baseball player of all time. On the other, the Giants are parting with a top-100 prospect, three MLB-ready pitchers, and another starter already having success at Triple-A for a rental who is expected to sign the largest contract in MLB history before next season.
SF Giants prospect Casey Schmitt fields a ground ball against the Arizona Diamondbacks (2023).
Joe Camporeale -USA TODAY Sports
Potential SF Giants trade packages for Shohei Ohtani:
2. Casey Schmitt, Carson Whisenhunt, Grant McCray, Tristan Beck
Two other common tendencies that lead selling teams to accept seemingly underwhelming offers are valuing players already in the majors (in this case Schmitt and Beck) alongside an evaluation of a prospect that seems a bit out of date (McCray).
I was pretty open at the time that I thought the Giants promoted Casey Schmitt before he was ready offensively, and that has seemed to play out so far. He's hitting .210/.256/.296 in 199 plate appearances despite a scorching hot start, but Schmitt is still a top-100 prospect value. He is already a Gold Glove-worthy third baseman and has actually been surprisingly competent at shortstop. His glove got him a call-up before his bat was ready, but Schmitt still has the tools to be an above-average offensive player down the line.
Even with his struggles, Schmitt would immediately slot into the Angels lineup as an everyday third baseman and push Luis Rengifo back to the keystone. There may be a bit of a logjam when Anthony Rendon and Brandon Drury return from injuries, but the Angels would have an opening at designated hitter after moving Ohtani, and Drury, Rendon, and Schmitt all have plenty of defensive versatility.
Tristan Beck has been a key contributor for the Giants this season. While the righty is older for a rookie (he turned 27 last month), Beck's development was delayed more by injuries and the pandemic-canceled season than poor performance. He's been effective at nearly every minor-league stop and has a long prospect pedigree dating back to his prep days in Southern California.
The Giants have not used Beck as a starter yet, and this deal would probably require Angels' evaluators to believe he could make that jump. Nevertheless, he has a 3.06 ERA (3.78 xERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.48 xFIP) in 50 innings pitched (20 appearances) with 38 strikeouts and 12 walks in the majors this season. There's obvious value in a controllable pitcher who clearly can contribute to a big-league staff.
Grant McCray was a name on top-100 watch lists heading into the season, but he stumbled out of the gate at High-A Eugene. It's easy to run from a nearly 23-year-old prospect with a nearly 30% K% at High-A, but McCray has the potential to be a Gold Glove center fielder who works counts, can hit 20 home runs, and steal 40 bases in a season. There are also a lot of factors that have made Eugene a difficult stop for Giants prospects. A look at how Luis Matos and Patrick Bailey fared in their High-A seasons could make the Angels optimistic that McCray can still become an elite all-around center fielder and believe they are getting a package of three top-100 prospects when teamed with Schmitt and Carson Whisenhunt.
SF Giants OF Luis Matos attempts to catch a home run against the Rockies. (2023)
Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports
Potential SF Giants trade packages for Shohei Ohtani:
3. Luis Matos, Carson Whisenhunt, Rayner Arias
Here's where things start to get real. Generally speaking, a trade starts to feel fair when neither side feels like they are getting a great deal. The first two packages would deplete the Giants of some prospect depth, but neither would shake up the top of their system.
Trading the best outfielder, left-handed pitcher, and teenage prospect in the organization alongside a couple of other pieces, on the other hand, is a different story. Matos is a 21-year-old who is already playing a solid center field in the majors and is not looking overmatched at the plate.
It's fair to say that Whisenhunt may be a light second piece in a potential deal for Ohtani. While he's cracked most top-100 lists by this point, he's not a consensus top-75 name and is viewed as more of a future mid-rotation arm than someone with elite upside.
However, his higher-floor profile is a great pairing with Rayner Arias, the Giants' top IFA signing in January. Arias is currently out with an injury but crushed the Dominican Summer League at 17 (.414/.540/.793 in 76 plate appearances) and will likely start next year at Single-A San Jose. With a strong stateside debut, Arias could easily catapult into the top 50 prospects in the minors by next May.
SF Giants infielder Marco Luciano poses for a portrait during photo day. (2023)
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Potential SF Giants trade packages for Shohei Ohtani:
4. Marco Luciano, Carson Whisenhunt, Mason Black, Blake Sabol
If I had to guess which of these packages is most likely to get both the Giants and Angels' front offices to agree on a deal, this is the one I would pick. Luciano is a consensus top-50 prospect in the minor leagues who has been a productive 22-year-old in the upper minors this season while Whisenhunt has reached the upper minors in his first full season and has become a consensus top-100 prospect in the minors. Furthermore, Blake Sabol has been a productive big-league rookie and Mason Black has mid-rotation potential and is already having success at Triple-A.
Personally, I would probably try to package Harrison and Schmitt over Luciano and Whisenhunt in a deal (although the gap is small), but my read on the Giants is they would do the opposite.
The Giants would be parting with Luciano's middle-of-the-order upside, but Ohtani is one of the best power hitters in the major leagues. Moreover, San Francisco would still have exciting young position players like Patrick Bailey, Matos, and Schmitt to build with.
Whisenhunt has a high floor and has begun flashing a higher upside, but the Giants would retain most of their impressive upper minors starting pitching depth. Moreover, Harrison, Beck, and Winn are all closer to the majors than both Black and Whisenhunt.
Plenty of folks have insinuated that the Angels would need to get Harrison, Luciano, and more for Ohtani. However, I'm skeptical that many teams are going to be willing to part with a pair of prospects that have Luciano and Whisenhunt's combined upside, are already in the upper minors, and just 22. Moreover, if the Angels are staring down losing Ohtani this offseason for nothing but a compensatory pick, this package would undeniably give them a ton of intriguing controllable talent.
SF Giants LHP Kyle Harrison throws to first base during a drill at spring training. (2023)
Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Potential SF Giants trade packages for Shohei Ohtani:
5. Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano, Tristan Beck, Vaun Brown
I would be incredibly surprised if the Giants traded Kyle Harrison and Luciano for Ohtani without an extension signed, something that almost assuredly is not going to happen. However, it's reasonable to be skeptical of anyone speaking in dramatic absolutes about this unprecedented situation.
If the Giants were willing to build a package around their two best prospects not already in the majors, there are only a handful of teams who could have a chance of beating that offer. And frankly, I don't think there's any front office out there that be.
The Giants are probably one elite bat and starting pitcher away from being a true World Series contender. Ohtani would address both of those needs. That said, this deal would probably be too rich for my blood unless there were some extremely positive early extension discussions with Ohtani and his agents. Then again, it's seemingly as difficult to envision passing on an opportunity to acquire arguably the greatest player of all time because of a prospect who has not reached the majors.
I do think it's worth dispelling the notion that trading Luciano and Harrison would gut the Giants' farm system. Perhaps I am being semantic, but the organization would still have a fairly deep group of prospects and the quartet of Matos, Bailey, Schmitt, and Whisenhunt. The Giants organization would still be chasms ahead of where the was at its most barren when it was one of the worst in the league. The Giants might be giving up the largest prospect package for a rental in MLB history in this deal, but the organization would still have a solid collection of young talent.
The Giants arguably have a top-five organization in terms of young talent right now (although most would probably rank them somewhere between 8-10), and making this deal would probably knock them down into the late teens or early twenties, but a lot of folks would still take the under-25 talent the Giants had remaining over the Astros, White Sox, Twins, Royals, Phillies, A's, Yankees, or Rockies' organizations.
Sure, the Giants would tumble in organizational prospect rankings, but that's because they have aggressively promoted players like Matos, Bailey, and Schmitt alongside prioritizing long-term, high-upside projects in the past two drafts.
Whether or not Shohei Ohtani is traded before the MLB trade deadline will remain the biggest story until that question is answered. The SF Giants will be among a long list of teams vying for an opportunity to acquire the star pitcher and hitter. If they do, it will be extremely interesting to see what package of prospects it takes to get a deal done.
