SF Giants free agent fit profile: Philadelphia Phillies SP Aaron Nola
As the SF Giants look to upgrade their roster after missing the playoffs this year, they have already been one of the most aggressive teams pursuing starting pitching in free agency. With that in mind, it's worth considering whether longtime Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola (3rd-best free agent) could be a fit. Nola is hitting free agency for the first time in his career, and is on the verge of cashing in.
Phillies ace Aaron Nola pitches against the SF Giants at Citizens Bank Park. (2023)
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
With the Phillies this season, Nola recorded a 4.46 ERA with 202 strikeouts and 45 walks in 193 innings pitched (32 appearances). Nola has been to one World Series in his career, losing to the Astros in 2022, but the Phillies have been making deep playoff runs for years now, and Nola has always been a huge part of Red October, as Phillies fans call it. And, hey – maybe Nola is tired of the bad luck associated with Philadelphia and is ready to help get the Giants back to the top of the league.
Part of Nola’s appeal comes from the fact that he’s been so good for so long – in his nine-year career, he’s stayed a steady starting pitcher for the Phillies and has trended upward in every regard. Nola was an All-Star in 2018 and made the All-MLB second team in 2022. In 2020, he placed 7th in Cy Young voting, and in 2022, he placed 4th. While his standard box score numbers took a step back this season, ERA estimators (3.77 xERA, 4.03 FIP, and 3.63 xFIP) were much more optimistic of his performance.
Nola would not be a risky choice for the Giants. Throughout his nine seasons of pitching, Nola has stuck to the same four pitches – a four-seam fastball, a curveball, a changeup, and a sinker – although he started working in a cutter in 2021 as well. He’s a reliable pitcher where he’s at, and he’s led the Phillies to a few deep playoff runs over the years. Overall, Nola would be a great addition to the Giants’ starting rotation.
There are a few downsides to Nola. First of all, he was born and raised in Louisiana and has spent his entire career in Philly, so it might take a lot of money to get him to head west and sign with San Francisco. Nola is also slated to turn 31 next year and while he's been incredibly healthy throughout his pro career, he's also thrown a lot of innings. On one hand, he's been consistent. On the other, there might be concerns about the workload his body has had to deal with.
Overall, while it might be tough to envision the SF Giants signing Aaron Nola, he would undeniably upgrade the team's starting rotation. Other top free agent starters like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Marcus Stroman are more obvious fits in San Francisco, but with plenty of offseason left, it's worth keeping an open mind to a different top starter if the dominoes fall in an unexpected way.
