SF Giants free agent fit profile: Texas Rangers LHP Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery might be the best pure pitcher in this year’s free agent class. He might also be Anthony DeSclafani. There’s a chance he’s both at the same time. It’s… complicated. And exactly where he falls on that scale is what the SF Giants and every other MLB team will try to figure out this offseason.
St. Louis Cardinals SP Jordan Montgomery pitches against the SF Giants. (2023)
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Over the last three years, Montgomery has been one of the most consistent good-brushing-great pitchers in the league. He’s thrown 524.1 innings in that span, so he checks the durability box. His ERA totals have gone 3.83, 3.48, and 3.20. Perhaps most importantly, he just finished up a World Series run with the Rangers in which he posted a 2.90 ERA over 6 appearances. He’s exactly the type of pitcher that’s earned a nice payday for himself in free agency, one that’s got more than a few teams murmuring to themselves about how much he would make their roster better.
So what’s the hold up?
The key here is that Montgomery isn’t someone who necessarily has an ace ceiling, not in the way that Max Scherzer or Jacob DeGrom or Carlos Rodón do. He’s a sinker-changeup-curve guy, someone who succeeds with guile and location more than he does pure stuff. And that might not be the kind of guy who you want to be paying upwards of $20 million a year for the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, maybe this is even more straightforward than we thought. Looking back, Montgomery’s been in the league since 2017, when he posted a 3.88 ERA in his rookie year. A big elbow injury and subsequent Tommy John surgery effectively knocked out his whole 2018 and 2019 seasons, and he took some time coming back in 2020 (5.11 ERA in 10 games). But from that point onwards, despite two mid-season trades, he’s thrown 524.1 innings with an ERA below 3.50.
It’s almost the profile of a good veteran player whose skill set shouldn’t degrade more than marginally over the next few years, but who will remain at elevated risk of falling off a cliff due to injury halfway through a big contract, which… why, that sounds quite familiar, doesn’t it?
That risk is where the DeSclafani comparison comes in. And before you flip away from the page like I do when I see a spider, I want to point out that DeSclafani was absolutely an instrumental part of the Giants winning 107 games in 2021. 150+ innings of low-3.00’s ERA isn’t something you can fake. He might never be likely to replicate that performance again, but he was exactly the kind of player the Giants would be hoping to get from Montgomery now.
From a pure talent perspective, Montgomery improves on what the Giants have right now. Wherever he lands, he could very feasibly out-perform fellow free agents Sonny Gray and Yoshinobu Yamamoto when the stats roll in at the end of the year. And for around $25 million, give or a take a few smackeroos, it wouldn’t be the end of the world for a Giants team with plenty of salary space to take on a somewhat risky contract given Montgomery’s floor and ceiling.
Realistically? I’m not sure it lines up. The Giants’ long-term free agent splashes in the starter pool in the last 15 or so years have been Barry Zito, Johnny Cueto, and Jeff Samardzija. But if the Giants are looking to outbid the market on length and price, I’m not sure they’re confident enough in a 34-year-old Montgomery to get anywhere near pulling the trigger.
Maybe they do want to take a different approach, though. That’s just about the best way I can see this playing out for the Giants. Give Montgomery $30 million or more on a shorter-term deal that gives him another shot on the market via an opt out. At that rate, the Giants can still sign Yamamoto or outfielder Lee Jung-hoo later without hitting the luxury tax, and if they end up “stuck” paying Shohei Ohtani an exorbitant amount of money, Montgomery’s hit would likely come off the books. In the meantime, the Giants will have arguably the best rotation in baseball, which fulfills the minor detail of being the most important part of a successful playoff run.
Unfortunately, I’m not sure this is practical if Montgomery doesn’t already have visions of riding cable cars down Market Street. He's a world-champion pitcher coming off of his strongest season yet - not exactly the type of guy looking for a pillow contract to rebuild his value next year. As the bidding for Jordan Montgomery pushes up the AAV or years, I’m not sure I see the SF Giants front office getting anywhere near that conversation. It’s a shame, too - he’d make the Giants a better team next year, without question. It’s just hard to imagine San Francisco thinking he’s the pitcher worth the risk.
