The Giants Want Roch Cholowsky. Here’s Why They Won’t Get Him.

Buster Posey is pulling out all the stops to manipulate the top prospect of the 2026 MLB draft to fall to San Francisco's No. 4 pick.

UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is widely projected to be the top pick in July's MLB draft, but the Giants are trying to change that. | Dan Squicciarini/Getty Images

No matter how hard Buster Posey pushes, Roch Cholowsky almost certainly won’t be playing his big league ball by the Bay.

The UCLA shortstop is widely expected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 MLB draft in July, though there is some emerging debate on that as prep shortstop Grady Emerson makes a late push. The Giants hold the fourth pick in the draft, and the word around MLB suggests Posey is enamored with Cholowsky and is attempting to maneuver things so that he can draft the two-time Big Ten Player of the Year.

Cholowsky has been the prospective No. 1 pick in this year’s draft since the day after the 2025 draft wrapped up. He’s had an outstanding career at UCLA, helping the Bruins to a 51–6 record and the No. 1 seed in the College World Series this year, and separated himself from his peers in the college ranks. The White Sox have the top pick in the draft, and here’s what I said about that selection when projecting Cholowsky to go No. 1 overall two weeks ago:

Cholowsky cemented himself as the likely top pick in this draft by hitting .353 with a 1.190 OPS and blasting 23 home runs as a sophomore at UCLA in 2025. He has followed that up by slashing .338/.463/.707 with 21 home runs this spring. Cholowsky is 6'2" and 200 pounds, and has outstanding raw power to mix with good swing decisions—he's walked more than he's struck out in college. He has average-at-best speed, but should stick at shortstop thanks to good actions and instincts, paired with a plus arm. His stranglehold on this spot has weakened this spring, but he's still the likely pick.

Posey recently met with Cholowsky and reportedly brought a guest, longtime San Francisco shortstop Brandon Crawford, who also went to UCLA. Cholowsky was a big fan of Crawford growing up. That was a smart move.

The Giants also traded two-time Gold Glove catcher Patrick Bailey to the Guardians in exchange for Matt Wilkinson and the 29th pick in the draft. That move added $3.27 million to the team's bonus pool and brought the total to $17,350,600. Most believe that was done to allow the team more money to offer Cholowsky.

Cholowsky would have to risk looking like the bad guy to three MLB franchises to give the Giants a chance to draft him. | Dan Squicciarini/Getty Images

San Francisco’s perceived goal here is to offer Cholowsky a big overslot guarantee if he falls to No. 4, thus increasing his demands for a deal with any of the first three teams. The White Sox pick first, the Rays are second and the Twins will go third. Tampa Bay’s $19,009,300 bonus pool is the second largest in the draft behind the Pirates ($19,130,700), while the Chicago is third ($17,592,100), the Giants are fourth and the Twins are fifth ($16,929,600). The full-slot amount for the No. 1 pick is $11,350,600.

If the Giants offered Cholowsky a guarantee of, say, $13 million, he could demand the same of any teams in front of San Francisco in an attempt to force his way there, claiming he'll just return to UCLA if the team doesn't match it. It's an interesting tactical move by Posey & Co., but it's unlikely to work for several reasons.

First, MLB would almost certainly frown on that kind of draft manipulation. It would set a horrible precedent that any future potential top pick could follow to pick their future franchise. It would render the entire draft process moot if young players could just pick their future teams.

Second, for this to happen, Cholowsky would have to play along—there’s no real evidence to suggest he will—and the three teams picking before San Francisco would have to be scared off. Let’s be real, I’m sure he loves Westwood, but under no circumstances is Cholowsky returning to UCLA, then entering the 2027 draft with no leverage. If he’s selected by one of the top three teams and is offered more than $10 million, he’ll almost certainly be going there. It's also worth noting that if Cholowsky's agent, Joel Wolfe, burns the other three teams by allowing his client to stonewall them, they won't be thrilled to engage over his other clients in the future.

Finally, the Giants truly have no control in this situation. Until MLB changes its rules and allows teams to trade first-round picks, San Francisco has nothing to offer other than convincing Cholowsky to look like the bad guy by blocking other teams from taking him.

If the top 10 of this draft were more closely aligned, there might be a chance that San Francisco could pull off something miraculous. That’s not the case. Cholowsky and Emerson are clearly ahead of the rest of the class, while Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey is a step below them and UC Santa Barbara righty Jackson Flora is the top pitcher and is likely a step behind Lackey. After those four and prep outfielder Eric Booth Jr., the draft falls off significantly.

Posey’s time in charge of the Giants has been disastrous. The Cholowsky gambit feels like a last-ditch effort to score a big win. It almost certainly won't work.

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