Guardians' Gavin Williams Squarely in AL Cy Young Race After Tarik Skubal's Injury

Could Parker Messick enter the conversation, too?

Apr 29, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (32) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is sidelined indefinitely due to loose bones in his left elbow and will undergo surgery to remove them. This, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, typically sidelines players for 2-3 months.

Detroit ace Tarik Skubal will undergo surgery to remove loose bodies in his left elbow. Such procedures typically sideline players for 2-3 months. Skubal should return before season's end, but a tough blow for the impending free agent and two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) May 4, 2026

In a race that was dominated by Skubal so far this year, the AL Cy Young race is now wide open, with some of the top arms struggling or on the Injured List. In the American League alone, you have Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown, Joe Ryan, and Gerrit Cole all out with arm injuries.

This leaves the door open for someone like Gavin Williams to continue his breakthrough and cement himself in baseball history.

Why Gavin Williams Can Win the Cy Young

Apr 1, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams (32) gets set on the mound in the seventh inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Gavin Williams may not be a household name to most baseball fans, but he is definitely getting there. Right now, Williams is 10th in the AL in ERA (2.70), 4th in innings pitched (43.1), 2nd in strikeouts (53), and second in opponent batting average (.166).

It is only the beginning of May, and things can change, but Williams has faced some tough competition this year and has excelled. In his latest start against the Rays, Williams went 7.2 innings, allowing no runs on five hits with nine strikeouts. Most importantly, he did not walk a batter. 

Control has been somewhat of an issue for Williams, which could hold him back from winning. He allowed five walks to the Royals on April 7th, three against the Dodgers on April 1st, and six on March 27th against the Mariners. He has limited the walks in the last four starts, totaling just five free bases.

The metrics are forecasting a little bit of regression coming for Williams, though. Baseball Savant has his barrel rate (13.3% and hard-hit rate (45.7%) as well below average. In fact, the barrel rate is in the bottom 10% in all of baseball, and his hard-hit rate is in the bottom 20%. In the same vein, his average exit velocity ranks in the bottom 13% of baseball, too, at 91.3 mph.

He excels at whiff rate, strikeout rate, and ground ball rate. His fastball run value is in the 84th percentile, and his pitching run value as a whole ranks in the 79th percentile. 

If Williams can keep his strikeout rate this high and keep the walks down, limiting his earned runs and keeping the ERA below 3.00 or as close to it as possible, there is no reason to believe he cannot be this year’s Cy Young. 

Is Parker Messick a Contender, Too?

May 3, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Parker Messick (77) throws to a Cleveland Guardians batter during the first inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Marshall-Imagn Images | Scott Marshall-Imagn Images

Another Guardian pitcher is in a prime position to be considered for this year’s Cy Young. Parker Messick has broken out in a big way this season. He dons a 2.40 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP to go along with his 3-1 record and 44 strikeouts. 

Messick came back down to earth a little bit against the Athletics, going just five innings and allowing four earned runs. As a positive, his strikeout rate remained high, and he did not walk a batter, which is always a good sign.

If Messick can keep delivering 6+ strikeout games where he goes 6+ innings, he will become a name people will begin to include in their straw polls for the award. Quality starts and strikeouts are what win this award, and Messick already has more than a few under his belt.

While rookie regression is likely for Messick, if he continues to improve, he will be right there with the top contenders in the American League.

Right now, the Cy Young race is wide open. Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Dylan Cease, and Jose Soriano are currently the favorites. Jacob deGrom, Gavin Williams, and Bryan Woo are right behind them. This race is wide open, as there is not one pitcher in the league that is overly dominating or has the resume to continue to do so as Skubal did. 

With all these big arms on the shelf, it is now for Gavin Williams to show the world what he can really do and take home some hardware. As for Parker Messick, it may seem like an unattainable goal, but that is never the case in the game of baseball. Both of these pitchers need to stay consistent and stay healthy, and they will be reaping the rewards and hopefully, the award, for their hard work and dedication.