Why Gavin Williams is Likely to be the Cleveland Guardians' Ace in 2026

The Cleveland Guardians have an issue.

But it may be a good one.

Heading into the 2026 MLB season, the Guardians' coaching staff has a tough decision when evaluating its pitching rotation. They've got two great, ace-worthy pitchers who can lock down the start of the rotation: Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams.

Both pitchers are coming off exceptional 2025 campaigns where they were the clear-cut best starters for the organization, and fortunately for the Guardians, both are still young.

However, there's only one that should be the team's ace for Opening Day, which is just a few months away, and it's Williams.

How Williams Has Impressed

The 26-year-old is coming off a campaign riddled with exciting moments. He threw an 11-strikeout game in an 8-2 win over the Athletics in July and threw three one-hit games, one of which was in an 8.2-inning win over the New York Mets.

He finished the season with an ERA of 3.06 across 31 starts and 167 total innings of action on the mound. The 2025 season was by far the biggest role he played with the club since his call-up back in 2023. Cleveland's coaching staff trusted him, and he delivered.

In his two seasons prior, he combined for just 32 games played, one more than he did last year.

Across the board, each of his statistics and metrics grew, showing major improvement and confidence on the mound. His WHIP dropped to 1.270, his hits allowed per nine innings came in at 7.0 and his strikeouts per nine innings came in at 9.3. Those are all major signs of someone who's poised to take on a bigger role in a rotation, specifically, as an ace.

Cleveland's coaching staff has notoriously loved high-extension pitchers, and in 2025, he was ranked in the 90th percentile. In advanced metrics, he was in the 84th percentile with a mark of 96.5. Outside of those two eye-grabbing percentiles, he finished above average in four others: xBA, Whiff%, K% and GB%.

Not only do his numbers show just how good of a pitcher he's becoming, but so does his versatile pitching lineup. Williams sports five pitches in total, and last season, he used each of them effectively.

His four-seam fastball, thrown about 37% of the time and averaging 96.6 mph, allows him to establish the strike zone and set up his off-speed pitches. He then leans heavily on a curveball and sweeper to change speeds and miss bats, while also mixing in a cutter and sinker to induce weak contact and keep hitters off balance. The blend of velocity, movement and pitch variety is exactly what teams are looking for in big games or series openers.

His style of pitching is scary, and if he can remain consistent in 2026, there's a real-world scenario where he potentially ends up in Cy Young discussions. Yes, that's a far cry, but one that could end up happening.

The Case Against Bibee

Bibee is a great pitcher. There's no question about that.

However, in 2025, he looked a bit rough at times on the mound.

He took over the duties as the team's ace following the movement of some of the previous veterans and injuries to fan-favorite Shane Bieber, who would ultimately be traded in the middle of the season. Bibee was under immense pressure to perform, especially because of how lackluster the hitting was throughout the year. Unfortunately, he wasn't able to weather the storm very often.

He lost a team-high 11 games while on the mound and took drastic steps downyard compared to his 2023 and 2024 numbers. His ERA fell from 2.98 in 2023 to 3.47 in 2024, followed by an even bigger drop to 4.24 last year. Yes, it's partially due to a bigger sample size, but it still raises concern.

His WHIP, hits allowed per nine innings jumped, while his strikeouts per nine innings dropped. He also allowed a career high in home runs per nine innings, a mark that finished the season at 1.3.

Some of his advanced stats show that he's still maintaining good pace to continue to develop into a reliable, talented arm, but his future may just not be at that ace spot.

Both will get a chance to show what improvements they've made in the offseason, or lack thereof, as spring training kicks off in just under two weeks. The Guardians' first game is set for Saturday, Feb. 21, at 3:05 p.m. EST against the Cincinnati Reds.