What Are the Odds of the Seattle Mariners Catching the Houston Astros and Winning the AL West?
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The Seattle Mariners enter a much-needed off day on Monday at 60-53 on the season. Seattle just took three of four from the Texas Rangers and just went 9-8 in a 17-game stretch with no off days right out of the All-Star break.
Mariners since the All-Star break:
Opponent | Series Record | Record Since ASB |
|---|---|---|
Astros | 2-1 | 2-1 |
Brewers | 1-2 | 3-3 |
Angels | 2-2 | 5-5 |
Athletics | 1-2 | 6-7 |
Rangers | 3-1 | 9-8 |
The M's recent series win, coupled with the Astros' struggles, have brought them to within 2.5 games in the American League West race, and Fangraphs likes their odds of of potentially catching Houston to win their first division title since 2001.
The site gives the Mariners an 81.8 percent chance to make the playoffs, compared to 85.8 percent for the Astros. It also gives Seattle a 39.7 percent chance to win the division, compared to 53.1 for the Astros. The Mariners have a three-game series with the Astros in Houston from Sept. 19-21.
As for the wild card, Seattle is currently in the third wild card spot, two games ahead of the Texas Rangers and three ahead of the Cleveland Guardians.
Team | Record | WC Spot |
|---|---|---|
Red Sox | 62-51 | 1 |
Yankees | 60-52 | 2 (1.5 GB) |
Mariners | 60-53 | 3 (2.0 GB of Boston) |
Rangers | 58-55 | |
Guardians | 56-55 |
The Mariners own the season series over the Rangers, and have a 3-0 lead on the Guardians this year as well.
The M's will be back in action on Tuesday night when they host the Chicago White Sox at T-Mobile Park.
Though the White Sox are just 42-70, they are playing better out of the All-Star break, and they just took two-of-three against the Angels in Anaheim.
All-Star right-hander Bryan Woo will pitch for Seattle while Davis Martin goes for Chicago.
Woo is 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA.
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