Julio Rodríguez Has the Perfect Opening to Win AL MVP for the Mariners This Season

The American League MVP race is pretty wide open this season. Part of that is thanks to the Aaron Judge injury. The other, we’ll get into. But for the Mariners, that should mean one thing. This is the year to take Julio Rodríguez more seriously as a candidate, even if it feels like a long shot.

It’s not so much a local argument as much as it is a real thing. Rodríguez has everything he needs to win it this season. And no, he’s not a favorite today, and he hasn’t done enough…yet. The road in front of him has a lane open, and if he does what he’s made a habit of doing in the second half, the race can be his for the taking.

The AL MVP Race Is Wide Enough for Julio Rodríguez to Make a Run

The early betting market is also leaving the door open for the possibility. ESPN’s MLB awards odds tracker has Yordan Alvarez sitting as the AL MVP favorite, with Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Kurtz, and Ben Rice in the mix. Julio’s odds have him fifth on the board, proving they also see the point.

The AL field doesn’t have the same shape it had when the season began.

Aaron Judge being sidelined with a rib injury changes the entire conversation. Julio’s teammate Cal Raleigh will also miss his chance this season after a slow start and an IL stint. That won’t hand it to Julio, but it removes two of the biggest roadblocks.

Alvarez is an absolute monster. He’s slashing .328/.434/.653 with 24 home runs and 54 RBI and a 199 OPS+. Talk about a frontrunner. He might be the AL’s most feared hitter right now. Witt also isn’t going anywhere. After a slow start he already has his batting average up to .284 with 9 home runs after waiting nearly a month to hit his first.

However, neither situation should scare the Mariners out of the conversation. Alvarez has the bat, but the Astros’ place in the standings could play a role. Fair or not, MVP voters usually skew towards huge stats, and maybe an even bigger star power, for there to be an MVP whose team finishes under .500. The last six MVP’s to do that?

Shohei Ohtani - 2023, 73-89 Angels
Shohei Ohtani - 2021, 77-85 Angels
Mike Trout - 2019, 72-90 Angels
Giancarlo Stanton - 2017, 77-85 Marlins
Mike Trout - 2016, 74-88 Angels
Alex Rodriguez - 2003, 71-91 Rangers

A lot of AL West guys. But if Houston (33-41, fourth in the AL West) is not sitting where voters expect an MVP team to sit, that opens the door. Witt has the all-around profile, but his case depends on the Royals (29-44, last in the AL Central) being relevant enough for the national conversation to keep circling back to it.

Let’s also be transparent here, Julio doesn’t have the numbers to win today. He’s slashing .248/.311/.429 with 13 home runs, 34 RBI, 9 stolen bases and a 109 OPS+.

But all it will take is for him to add some heat and this will all start to make sense. He plays a premium position. He hits in a productive spot in the order. And he’s not a one-dimensional player. He’s a five-tool guy who will make a difference.

So, the real selling point? Second-half Julio.

OH MY J-ROD

Julio Rodríguez hits a TOWERING homer up by the train tracks 🤯 pic.twitter.com/YIyM3Ok2pU
— MLB (@MLB) May 12, 2026

It’s not a cheap label. This is a real reputation. From 2022-25, Rodríguez has had a .737 OPS (currently .739 in 2026) before the All-Star break and a .902 OPS after it, a pattern that has continued for four straight seasons. And he’s already on pace to hit the most home runs in his career (16) before the All-Star break.

If Julio were having a slow start with no history of second-half explosions, this would be wishful thinking. But he’s already shown us the script. The question is whether he can do it early enough and loud enough this time.

The return of Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, and Brendan Donovan will undoubtedly help. Julio, much like many pivotal hitters, is better when he isn’t a single point of failure in the lineup. A lineup filled with difficult outs will only help his case.

But in order for this to truly work, he needs to get on base more. Pitchers are going to test his patience, so working more walks and making better swing decisions will help. And he’s got to make up for the fielding issues earlier in the season. Julio is typically a WAR machine, and his -1 FRV doesn’t do him any favors.

So, that’s the lane in front of him. If second-half Julio arrives again, and if Seattle rides the wave into the playoff race, this stops being a Mariners argument built around hope and suspicion. It becomes a legitimate MVP conversation.

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