Mariners Next 24 Games Should Decide Whether Ugly Start Is A Stumble Or Warning Sign

Seattle is not out of time, but it has already used up too much runway.

Apr 16, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) hits a single during the fourth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-Imagn Images | David Frerker-Imagn Images

There is a version of this Mariners season where everyone needs to take a breath. As Kendrick Perkins would put it, some fans may need to “keep a cool booty,” because there are still plenty of reasons to believe this team is better than its 11-16 start.

The season is long. The roster has too much talent to be written off in April. The rotation still gives Seattle a chance to stabilize faster than most struggling teams. And we don’t need to be reminded that weird starts can turn into meaningful seasons. We lived through that in 2022, when Seattle opened 21-29 through 50 games and still snapped its postseason drought.

So no, the Mariners are not cooked. Nobody needs to start throwing dirt on the season before the calendar flips to May. 

But there is a difference between refusing to panic and pretending nothing is wrong. And right now, Seattle is inching toward the kind of hole that turns a long season into a math problem way too soon.

Mariners’ Rough Start Has Already Put Pressure On Their Next 24 Games

That makes the next 24 games very important. Not because the season will literally be over if the Mariners don’t dominate this stretch. That would be dramatic, even by baseball standards. But this is where the tone of the season can start to harden. At 11-16, Seattle has already given away enough runway. The next month needs to be about reclaiming some of it before they find themselves needing an exhausting run-the-table surge just to get back into the conversation.

And that was never supposed to be the deal with this team. The Mariners were not built to make the first half stressful. This was supposed to be the year where the AL West softened. This division was supposed to be there for the taking. So far, Seattle hasn’t taken it. Worse, the Mariners have spent the first month looking like a team still trying to convince itself it knows how to seize the moment.

A 14-10 mark over the next 24 games should be treated as the floor. If the Mariners do that, they would be 25-26 through 51 games. Still not where anyone wanted this club to be. But at least then the season is back within reach. It would leave them needing a strong, but not ridiculous pace the rest of the way to push toward the postseason range.

The better target is 15-9. That would put Seattle at 26-25, which changes the whole feel of the conversation. Suddenly the ugly start becomes a stumble instead of a warning sign.

Anything worse than 12-12, though, is where the concern gets loud. A .500 stretch from here would leave them 23-28 through 51 games. Technically still survivable. Historically survivable, too. But definitely not comfortable. Not for a team with legitimate expectations. 

That is also where Cal Raleigh’s view of the whole thing matters, because he struck the right balance when talking to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer. Raleigh didn’t dismiss the frustration.

“It’s a fine balance,” Raleigh said, noting that the Mariners know they need to be better, but that trying to force the issue will not help anyone in the clubhouse. He also pointed out that good teams go through ugly 25-game stretches, only this one looks worse because it arrived at the beginning of the season.

That’s the part worth sitting with. Raleigh is right. If the Mariners had gone 11-16 in June after a strong April and May, people would be annoyed, but they probably wouldn’t be treating it like a referendum on the entire operation. Bad baseball always feels worse when it is the first thing fans see. 

But that is also why the next 24 games matter so much. Raleigh’s point only works if the Mariners eventually give people the better 25-game stretch he believes is coming. Confidence is fine. Patience is reasonable. “Keep a cool booty” is good advice for anyone ready to launch the season into Elliott Bay before May. But the Mariners still have to turn that confidence into wins before the early-season microscope becomes a season-long burden.

That’s the danger in leaning too hard on history. The 2022 Mariners did it. The 2024 Astros did it. Other playoff teams have done it. But those examples should not be treated like a permission slip. They are warnings that tell us survival is possible, not that survival is a good plan.

The Mariners should not need to repeat a 14-game win streak to make their season make sense. If the Mariners are the team many expected them to be, this is the stretch where they start acting like it.