Why Cal Raleigh Can’t Catch Up to Fastballs This Season

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It’s been a lost year for Cal Raleigh. After posting a .948 OPS while hitting 60 home runs last year, the Mariners catcher ended July at .579 with 11 home runs. His decline is unprecedented. Of the 54 seasons in which a player hit 50 home runs, none fell the next year to an OPS lower than the .704 OPS of Chris Davis in 2014.
The most obvious decline in his game is how weak he has been against velocity. The Statcast numbers show that he is chronically late getting to fastballs. Pitchers know this and they are throwing him more velo.
Cal Raleigh vs. 95+ mph | Percentage Seen | HR | BA | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 19.0% | 12 | .242 | .570 |
2026 | 23.7% | 2 | .137 | .219 |
Here you can see for yourself why Raleigh has been chronically late on heaters this year.

Tom Verducci is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated who has covered Major League Baseball since 1981. He also serves as an analyst for FOX Sports and the MLB Network; is a New York Times best-selling author; and cohosts The Book of Joe podcast with Joe Maddon. A five-time Emmy Award winner across three categories (studio analyst, reporter, short form writing) and nominated in a fourth (game analyst), he is a three-time National Sportswriter of the Year winner, two-time National Magazine Award finalist, and a Penn State Distinguished Alumnus Award recipient. Verducci is a member of the National Sports Media Hall of Fame, Baseball Writers Association of America (including past New York chapter chairman) and a Baseball Hall of Fame voter since 1993. He also is the only writer to be a game analyst for World Series telecasts. He lives in New Jersey with his wife, with whom he has two children.