How the Mets are approaching the starting pitching market

The winter is young and David Stearns has put the attention on himself thanks to his decisions to blow up the New York Mets' existing core. The departures of Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz removed three key players from the locker room, allowing Stearns to work on building the roster in his image, including in the starting rotation.

One last goodbye to Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and Edwin Díaz:https://t.co/v8UooJM5rw
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) December 15, 2025

The Mets have been looking to upgrade the front of their rotation throughout the offseason, although there have been mixed signals about how committed they are to handing out a long-term contract to a starter. The Athletic's Will Sammon delved into the team's rotation plans today and his latest report indicates that the Mets are weighing next year's free agent options in addition to what's available today.

What's next for the Mets? Attempted to answer that question here, which contains reporting on who they are open to moving, a new player profile they're considering and a possible bullpen scenario: https://t.co/M7BMj8CK71
— Will Sammon (@WillSammon) December 15, 2025

The free agent class for 2026 is arguably better than the current crop of starters, which is headlined by Framber Valdez, Michael King and Ranger Suarez after Dylan Cease signed with Toronto earlier this winter. 2026's top starters eligible to hit the market include Detroit's Tarik Skubal, Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta, Toronto's Kevin Gausman, Atlanta's Chris Sale and Philadelphia's Jesus Luzardo.

"The Brewers definitely don't WANT to trade Freddy Peralta. The problem is that they may HAVE to."@WillSammon has the latest on the abundance of interest around MLB on Milwaukee's ace. #MLBTonight pic.twitter.com/H77Um9tCMo
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 13, 2025

The Mets have been discussing trades for potential starters, which may be a preferred avenue for Stearns if he doesn't want to hand out a long-term contract to someone like Valdez or Suarez. While David Peterson is set to become a free agent after the 2026 season, the Mets could enter 2027 with Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and Clay Holmes under contract with youngsters Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat and Christian Scott all making pre-arbitration salaries.

How the Mets are trying to thread the needle with their pitching

The tightrope that Stearns is walking is precarious, especially since Sammon mentioned in his report that Senga and Peterson, who have been mentioned in trade rumors throughout the offseason, aren't locks to get dealt. Stearns does not want to trade away players simply to trade them, so if a team doesn't meet his preferred price, the Mets may as well hold onto both of their existing trade candidates.

The Mets also appear to be out on King, who they had a Zoom meeting with earlier in the offseason, and the only rumored trade possibilities at the moment appear to be with the San Diego Padres concerning Nick Pivetta. There were reports earlier in the offseason that the Mets checked in with Milwaukee on a Peralta trade and there was buzz in the season about Stearns' interest in acquiring Mitch Keller from Pittsburgh.

There could be a theoretical match with the Pirates on a Keller for Jeff McNeil swap, although the three years left on Keller's deal could further box the Mets in for the long run. Sammon noted that the Mets could opt to slow play the pitching market and see if Suarez or Valdez is willing to accept a shorter deal closer to their desired price point in January, but there are only five (or six if Senga sticks around) rotation spots available at a time and the team seems to be loaded with back-end options.

Holmes' ability to opt out after 2026 could clear a spot, but the Mets would need to replace the production of arguably their most consistent pitcher from a year ago. Leaps from McLean and the other young starters could also mitigate the Mets' need for top of the rotation help for 2027 and beyond, but teams looking to contend rarely try to break in multiple young starters in the same season.

The types of pitchers available next winter are clearly superior to this winter's class, but no one is actually guaranteed to hit the market next October. Someone could blow away the Tigers with an offer for Skubal and extend him, removing the top arm from next year's free agent class, while the same could hold true for any number of quality arms projected to be available.

There could be value to be had by filling the rotation on a short-term basis and making a bigger swing next winter, but it is quite risky to rely too much on future projections. The third Wild Card in the National League required only 83 wins a year ago, and the Mets should be focused on giving themselves the best chance to get into the tournament to see what can happen in a postseason format that rewards hotness as much as greatness.

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How the Mets are trying to thread the needle with their pitching

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