What’s Real and What’s Not Among MLB Opening Week Trends

Can Luis Robert maintain his strong start for the Mets? Is Mike Trout back to his old ways for the Angels? And should the Phillies be worried?

Luis Robert Jr. has played a key role for the Mets so far in the young season. | Gregory Fisher-Imagn Images

The 2026 season is not quite a week old, which means observers have begun to draw conclusions about the season. You can expect some of these trends to hold up. You can expect others to disintegrate within the month. What follows is an attempt to identify which are which.

REAL

ABS is good

I am generally in favor of a rule change if it A. makes the sport more fair or B. makes the sport more entertaining. (I dislike the Manfred Man, the runner who starts extra innings at second base in the regular season, because I would argue it does neither.) The automated ball-strike challenge system, which debuted on Opening Night, does both. 

Teams begin each game with two challenges, which they retain as long as they are right. Only pitchers, catchers and hitters can initiate challenges, and they can only do so within two seconds and without help from anyone else. There will be plenty of strategy related to how and whether to deploy challenges—some teams are already forbidding their most hot-headed players from doing so—but broadly, you’d prefer to use them later in games, on pitches that could end a plate appearance. Until about the ninth inning, at which point you might as well use them because they don’t roll over, you should probably try to be pretty certain you’ll win. One thing we’ve learned already is that umpires are very good at this. Entering Monday, players, who are presumably mostly challenging calls they are fairly sure are wrong, were only right 54% of the time. Still, everyone wants to get these calls as right as possible, especially when, as did this Roman Anthony challenge with two outs in the top of the ninth inning of a one-run game, they may actually affect the outcome of the game.

But perhaps more important, sports are entertainment, and man, is this entertaining. We got to watch Randy Arozarena walking to first while waiting for the robots to confirm he belonged there. We got to watch Eugenio Suárez win challenges on consecutive pitches. And best of all, we got to watch our first ABS-related ejection, after home plate umpire Laz Diaz called a 3–2 Ryan Helsley pitch a ball; the pitcher challenged, the pitch was called a strike and Twins manager Derek Shelton erupted from the dugout, arguing that Helsley had taken too long to initiate the challenge. After some jawing, Diaz ejected Shelton; the Orioles’ broadcast’s call, “He’s arguing with the robots! You can’t defeat the robots!” immediately became an all-timer. 

Luis Robert is a steal

When the Mets acquired Luis Robert from the White Sox this offseason, everyone involved knew the score: Robert is one of the most talented players in the game. But amid half a dozen leg injuries, he hasn’t put it all together. The White Sox were tired of waiting. The Mets were willing to give him another chance—and to pay his full $20 million salary, and give up young infielder Luisangel Acuña, for the privilege. 

A week in, that looks like a good choice. Robert, typically a free swinger, worked a 10-pitch walk in the first inning on Opening Day to help chase Paul Skenes. Two days later, Robert launched an 11th-inning home run to walk off the Pirates in another Mets win. It’s only been three games, but entering Monday he was swinging less than his career average (47.6% this year, 57.1% overall) and making more contact (76.7% to 69.7%). 

“We’ve been working on that a lot,” Robert told reporters through interpreter Alan Suriel. “I think the one thing that great players have is knowing how to select the proper pitches to swing at. I think for me to be able to go back to being the player that I was and that I know that I’m capable of being, I think that’s going to be a big part of my game.”

So will staying healthy, which has always been Robert’s biggest challenge: The only time he played a full season, in 2023, he was an All-Star and a Silver Slugger who got MVP votes. The Mets said when they traded for Robert that they planned to work with him on his eye and on his lower body condition. The former already appears to be paying off. If the latter does too, this could be one of the best moves of the offseason. 

The Brewers are doing it again

Christian Yelich hit a three-run homer in the eighth inning Sunday to complete the Brewers’ five-run comeback against the White Sox. | Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

Spare a thought for Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy, who is going to have to come up with a new motivational tactic soon: Everyone believes in the Brewers. And they’re right to, because the Brewers are the real deal. Even with an overhauled roster—gone are first baseman Rhys Hoskins, signed with the Guardians; third baseman Caleb Durbin, traded to the Red Sox; left fielder Isaac Collins, traded to the Royals; ace Freddy Peralta, traded to the Mets; and No. 3 starter José Quintana, signed with the Rockies—this team appears poised to repeat what last year’s did and win the division.

Three games in, this group was walking more than anyone else (17.2%) and striking out less than all but five other teams (18.8%). No other club was in the top seven in both categories. 

NOT REAL

Paul Skenes is not bad

This may seem like a gimme, and I guess it kind of is. I suspect no serious fan of baseball believes that Skenes is cooked after he allowed five runs and recorded two outs against the Mets on Opening Day. But perhaps some of you are just baseball-curious and need reassurance. Let’s turn to Skenes himself for that: “I’m not as upset about this, for me personally, as people would probably think,” he said. “They did a really good job. It was an abnormal outing.”

He was polite enough not to mention that had shortstop-turned-center fielder Oneil Cruz made either of the plays he botched that inning, Skenes would have been out of the frame with perhaps only one run allowed. He also got unlucky on a jam shot and a swinging bunt. To be sure, Skenes did not pitch well—he issued two walks and generally struggled to put away hitters—but the Mets hit only one of his offerings harder than 90 mph.

“The batting average on balls in play was super high today,” he said. “That’ll go down as the season goes on.”

That’s the spirit! It also happens to be correct.

Mike Trout is not back

Mike Trout has resembled his old self so far this season. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

There used to be a feeling among the analytically savvy that statistics became “real” for the season once Mike Trout sat atop the wins above replacement leaderboards. Entering Monday’s games, there he was at No. 1 on FanGraphs, with 0.6 in four games.

It pains me to say this, because he’s such a pleasure to watch play when he’s at his best, but I don’t think he will win the all-time single-season slugging percentage crown with his current .923—in part because he’s unlikely to keep slugging .923, but mostly because he’s very unlikely to play enough games to qualify.

Trout is still so skilled, but he’s 34, he’s back in center field and he hasn’t gotten 600 plate appearances in a season since 2019. Since then he’s averaged 75 games a season. His injury history is spotty enough that he was denied insurance coverage for the World Baseball Classic. That was a terrible shame, given how infrequently we get to see him play games that matter. It’s hard to believe that will change with the Angels this year. 

The Phillies are not this flat

Honestly, I’m least confident in this one. The Phillies employ the third-oldest lineup in the sport (average age: 30.5), and only 22-year-old rookie center fielder Justin Crawford can’t yet rent a car without a surcharge. The margin for error with such a vintage group is very narrow; a couple of nagging injuries can quickly lead to a disaster season. On the other hand, the oldest lineup last year belonged to the Dodgers, and as you might recall, that worked out O.K. for them. There’s something to be said for experience. 

You don’t love when your lineup is slugging .295 through four games, 26th in the sport as of Monday night. But they’re averaging an 89.9 mph exit velocity, which is fifth. I think they’ll be O.K. But check back with me once the backs start barking and the knees start aching. 

---