Orioles Rays Series A Study In Contrasts. Only One Franchise Ever Overachieves

The Tampa Bay Rays are the team the Orioles with they were.

The Rays are truly the little engine that could, who routinely shatter expectations and who have some secret sauce with pitching development and who are somehow 30-15, with the best record in the American League. Whatever parables Orioles baseball czar Mike Elias tells himself and his bosses about player development and understanding how to win on the margins and cultivate a winning baseball culture and play sound fundamental baseball the Rays actually embody.

So, yeah, three days in Tampa will quite likely expose the Orioles for the patently flawed roster they are – as the Nationals series did over the weekend – and the dichotomies between these franchises couldn’t be any starker. The Rays can run and throw and they produce runs in a multitude of ways, while the Orioles (21-26) are swing-and-miss happy and have an lineup that has been in feast-or-famine mode for several years now.

Here’s what to watch most closely in the series:

On-Base Over Power

The Rays are tied for fifth in baseball with a .331 on-base percentage and their team slug is only 50 points above that. They want as many players on base as possible and they are aggressive on the base paths once they get on. They are tied for the American League lead with 51 stolen bases but have bene thrown out 21 times. It doesn’t prevent them from going after second and third base again, and Chandler Simpson has become a sparkplug for them. Ex-Oriole Cedric Mullins isn’t hitting much btu he is taking off when he does get on base. It could be a problem for an O’s pitching staff not that great controlling the run game though catcher Adley Rutschman has made strides himself.

Two Big Bats In The Middle Of The Lineup.

First-baseman Jonathan Aranda is very quietly leading the AL in runs driven in without going crazy from a home-run perspective. He just continues to have incredibly productive at bats with men on base and has five sac flies and has grounded into just one double play. And Junior Caminero is one of the truly elite young sluggers in MLB, with prodigious powers, and already has 12 home runs. He tends to hit a fair number of solo shots, but with the Orioles pitching staff near the bottom of MLB, and not much on swing-and-miss, he might be able to do a lot of damage.

Revenge Spots

Ex-Oriole reliever Bryan Baker has been absolutely nasty in the Rays pen, which should surprise no one who has paid attanetion to these two franchises and their arms. He is an emotional fellow and will beb up for this seriesl he had a rare off outing in an extra inning loss to Miami on Saturday but has been fooling people with his change up all season.

This will also be Shane Baz’s first meeting with the Rays since they traded him to Baltimore in the offseason for a treasure trove of prospects. The change of scenery ain't exactly benefitting him like it is "The Bake Show."

Baz’s home splits were terrible with the Rays but much of that had to do with the outdoor minor league ballpark they were forced to play in last year. Still, he’s been quite shaky with the Orioles and prone to throwing home run balls and this might not be the best time for his homecoming given how huge this series is for the Orioles. He is scheduled to pitch the finale Wednesday afternoon.

And Baltimore native Shane McClanahan looks all the way back from his Tommy John surgery for the Rays and he gets the Orioles in the series opener, opposed by crumbling O's starter Trevor Rogers. McClanahan is 6-0 with a 2.87 in his career against the Orioles, so, yeah, I doubt Elias’s misfit bunch is up for a sweep here.

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