Padres' Dylan Cease Predicted to Sign $168 Million Deal With AL East Club

Sep 24, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease (84) delivers during the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

San Diego Padres free agent pitcher Dylan Cease is predicted to head east after two seasons in Southern California to sign a long-term deal with an American League contender.

Cease joined the Padres via trade from the Chicago White Sox after several seasons with at least 3.6 fWAR. He was a proven ace when he arrived with the ambitious Padres, who were making a serious title run.

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That trade was one of many deals the president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller, made, though it did not lead to a World Series title.

A few years after the deal, the Padres are dealing with the fallout of going all in. Cease is a free agent, and their payroll limits suggest he's certainly gone, according to most reports.

Almost every baseball team looking for a starting pitcher will ask about Cease's price, since he has been a candidate for a Cy Young award before and has compiled several ace-worthy seasons.

Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report predicts that Cease will land a six-year contract worth $168 million with the Boston Red Sox.

Cease would ultimately earn more than $28 million annually over six years, securing his financial future and providing stability.

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He has elite stuff that can still be wipeout when he has a good command of his pitches. He has upped his velocity over the years, throwing 97.1 mph on his fastball, while having a wipeout slider that generates a ton of chase swings.

Last season, he had a 4.55 ERA and an expected ERA of 3.46, showing he was somewhat unlucky, but he still walked 3.8 batters per nine innings over the year.

His 2024 season was much better, with a 3.47 ERA and 4.7 fWAR. In 2025, that number dropped to 3.4 fWAR.

Still, last season had him generating a 95th percentile whiff rate, an 89th percentile strikeout rate, and an 80th percentile chase rate.

Cease might end up signing a higher salary deal that is short-term, allowing him to rebound in metrics and re-enter the market after a more consistent season.

In reality, he will want the long-term money secured, especially since injuries or other struggles could cause a further decrease in value.

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