Padres Expect to Lose $108.8 Million Star in Free Agency: Report

Mar 28, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove (44) looks on alongside starting pitchers Michael King (34) and Dylan Cease (84) during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images | Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease might end up parting ways with the team during free agency as the organization faces payroll issues.

Cease is a free agent, and as a multi-time Cy Young contender, the pitcher has the reputation, numbers, and longevity to get a lucrative deal.

The Padres, meanwhile, have another starting pitcher hitting free agency, Michael King, and contact-hitting specialist Luis Arraez also hitting the open market.

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According to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, people around the league expect Cease to leave and get a bigger deal with another team.

"After the World Series, King is expected to decline a $15 million mutual option and attract much larger offers on the open market," Lin wrote in a story for The Athletic.

"Team officials do not foresee much of a chance that Cease, another pending free agent and a Scott Boras client, stays in San Diego. There is greater hope that King re-ups in the city where his career has taken off. But there is no delusion."

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According to Spotrac, Cease's market value projects at $108.8 million, a number that should be the starting point in negotiations. But due to his stature in the game of baseball, the multi-time All-Star should get more than projections indicate.

If Cease does play a key role in the Padres winning their long-awaited World Series, his value will go up drastically. Even if the team fails to win, any stellar playoff performance will help his future earnings.

This season, Cease has stayed healthy, pitching 129.1 innings and making 24 starts. While he's 5-10 with a 4.52 ERA, he's been better as of late, sporting a 1.14 ERA over his last two starts.

While his numbers on the surface do not paint the picture of a bona fide ace, Cease's advanced statistics paint a better picture.

According to Baseball Savant, Cease is in the 82nd percentile in expected batting average, 74th percentile in expected ERA, 96th percentile in whiff percentage, and 92nd percentile in strikeout percentage.

Additionally, he is in the 83rd percentile in chase percentage. He does give up hard contact and struggles with his command, but when he is on, the 29-year-old can put a team on his back.

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