2026 MLB Playoff Picture and Odds for Every Team (Guardians, D-Backs Rising; Do Orioles, Blue Jays Have Chance?)

Just one day remains in August, and the final month of regular season baseball should have a ton of exciting playoff implications.

According to FanGraphs, five teams have a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs at this point in the season, but the final wild card spot in both leagues is completely up for grabs.

The Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles
Dodgers are all off the board at sportsbooks when it comes to their odds to make the playoffs, which is in line with FanGraphs’ “100 percent” projection.

Meanwhile, there are four teams within two games in the American League for the final wild card spot and three teams within four games for the final spot in the National League.

So, a lot could change down the stretch of the regular season, even though a few teams seem to have locked up their respective spots.

Each week, the SI Betting team dissects the latest playoff picture and odds, a fun way to give bettors a look at who may be undervalued to reach the postseason in 2026.

Right now, there are a bunch of teams at plus money to make the playoffs in the American League, which could make for an exciting finish in September.

Here’s a look at how every team stacks up heading into the action on Monday, Aug. 31.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

2026 American League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Tampa Bay Rays: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)
Chicago White Sox: -1400
Houston Astros: -210

Tampa Bay just keeps on winning, taking four straight games to keep the Yankees 4.5 games back in the AL East. FanGraphs has given the Rays better than an 81 percent chance to win the AL East, and they’re clearly in the driver’s seat for the best record in the American League.

However, the biggest movement in the odds comes with both of the other division leaders in the AL.

Chicago jumped from -500 to -1400 to make the playoffs over the last week, even with the Cleveland Guardians making a serious push for the division by winning eight of their last 10. Chicago has a 3.5-game lead in the AL Central and has a 73.2 percent chance to win the division, per FanGraphs.

In the AL West, the Houston Astros have gone from even money (+100) to -210 to win the division with the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners both failing to get over .500 entering September. Texas (three games under .500) is two games back in the division while the Mariners have lost four games in a row to remain four games back.

Seattle has the easiest schedule remaining in MLB, but oddsmakers believe this is Houston’s division to lose. FanGraphs’ projections agree, setting Houston as the clear favorite to win the division (63.4 percent) in 2026.

AL Wild Card Race

New York Yankees: N/A (100% at FanGraphs)
Boston Red Sox: -5000
Cleveland Guardians: +100
Toronto Blue Jays: +210
Texas Rangers: +230
Baltimore Orioles: +310
Seattle Mariners: +425
Minnesota Twins: +1300
Detroit Tigers: +2200
Kansas City Royals: +3500
Los Angeles Angels: N/A
Athletics: N/A

All season long, the final wild card spot in the American League has been a mystery.

Just last week, Texas was the favorite to land it at +120, but the Rangers have dropped back behind both the Guardians (+160 to +100) and the Toronto Blue Jays (+210) to make the postseason. Toronto has an easy schedule down the stretch (third-easiest in the league) and a three-game set with the Guardians where it could move these odds even more.

The Baltimore Orioles (one game out) may be the biggest winner this week, as they’ve gone from +500 to +310 to make the playoffs. The O’s have jumped ahead of the Mariners, who despite an easy schedule, can’t seem to get out of their own way. Seattle’s four game skid dropped it from +180 to +425 to make the playoffs, and at nine games under .500, it’s hard to make a real argument for Seattle to get in.

Cleveland is peaking at the right time, making it an intriguing bet at +100, especially since it is still alive (3.5 games back) in the AL Central. Still, I don’t mind sprinkling on the Jays or Orioles at their current prices since both teams are less than two games back and nearing .500 this season.

2026 National League Playoff Odds

Division Leaders

Milwaukee Brewers: N/A
Los Angeles Dodgers: N/A
Atlanta Braves: N/A

What more can I say about the National League division leaders? All of these teams have a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs at FanGraphs and sizable leads in their respective divisions.

Atlanta has a five-game cushion over the Philadelphia Phillies and pulled off an impressive sweep of the Dodgers last week while the Brewers (eight games up) and Dodgers (9.5 games up) are close to clinching playoff spots.

Milwaukee has a three-game cushion on the No. 1 seed at this point in the season, but the Dodgers and Braves (both 82-55) are certainly within striking distance. The race for the top spot in the NL is the most exciting thing to watch that involves these three squads in September.

NL Wild Card Race

Chicago Cubs: -10000
Philadelphia Phillies: -5000
San Diego Padres: -125
Arizona Diamondbacks: +105
Miami Marlins: +1800
St. Louis Cardinals: +2000
Washington Nationals: +3500
Pittsburgh Pirates: +3500
Cincinnati Reds: +3500
New York Mets: +3500
San Francisco Giants: N/A
Colorado Rockies: N/A

The Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies are both 77-60 this season after Philly extended its winning streak to four on Sunday, and they both saw their playoff odds skyrocket as of late.

Chicago went from -5000 to -10000 while the Phillies jumped from -1400 to -5000. That’s interesting since both teams have just a five-game lead over the San Diego Padres, but oddsmakers clearly believe they’ll finish the regular season strong.

The final spot in the NL wild card is really a two-team race, but the Miami Marlins (3.5 games back) and St. Louis Cardinals (five games back) may have an outside shot.

As of Monday, the San Diego Padres are a half-game behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, but San Diego (-125) has better odds to make the postseason. Still, those odds have dropped considerably from last week when the Padres were firmly in the No. 3 wild card spot and priced at -295 to make the playoffs.

Arizona (+105) could be worth a look at plus money down the stretch, as bettors may have a chance to get both the Padres and D-Backs at a plus-money price in the final month of the regular season if this race stays close.

Miami (+1800) and St. Louis (+2000) are still viewed as massive long shots in the odds, and both teams have less than a four percent chance to make the playoffs at FanGraphs.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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