Mets vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Monday, Aug. 31

Can the Tampa Bay Rays keep the New York Yankees at bay in the AL East?

Tampa Bay is heavily favored to win the division this season, and it has the best record in the American League heading into Monday’s series opener against the New York Mets.

Still, the Yankees took three of four from Boston over the weekend, putting some pressure on the Rays to finish the season strong.

The Rays are an impressive 23 games over .500 at home this season, and they’re heavily favored against a New York team that is in last place in the NL East. The Mets have underachieved all season long, and injuries have certainly impacted the team’s ceiling in 2026.

Monday’s matchup features New York’s Robert Stock (7.40 ERA) on the mound against Tampa Bay’s Ian Seymour (4.21 ERA). Seymour has worked both as a starter and a reliever this season, pitching five or more innings in all five of his August outings.

Oddsmakers have set the Rays as pretty big favorites as they look to win a fifth game in a row.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Monday’s series opener.

Mets vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Mets +1.5 (-147)
Rays -1.5 (+122)

Moneyline

Mets: +158
Rays: -170

Total

8 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mets vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

New York: Robert Stock (0-3, 7.40 ERA)
Tampa Bay: Ian Seymour (9-5, 4.21 ERA)

Mets vs. Rays How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 31
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Tropicana Field
How to Watch (TV): SNY, Rays.TV
Mets record: 61-76
Rays record: 82-54

Mets vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Rays Best MLB Prop Bet

Junior Caminero to Hit a Home Run (+307)

In today’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run props column for SI Betting – I shared why Caminero is in a great spot to stay hot as he nears the 40-home run mark:

Caminero has put together a monster 2026 season, hitting .282 with 37 home runs and a .908 OPS to lead the Rays to the best record in the American League.

The All-Star third baseman has gotten hot at the end of August, hitting .409 with a 1.182 OPS over the last week, and he’s homered seven times in his last 25 games.

That puts Caminero in a solid spot to go deep against the New York Mets and right-hander Robert Stock (7.40 ERA) on Monday. Stock has allowed two home runs and 17 earned runs in 20.2 innings this season, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Rays jumped all over him in this start.

Caminero has hit 29 of his homers against righties, so he’s certainly worth a look with this line north of +300.

Mets vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Tampa Bay deserves to be favored in this matchup against Stock, who has allowed just one run in three of his outings but is coming off a four-inning performance where he allowed 10 hits, seven runs and two walks in a loss to Milwaukee.

Stock has two outings this season with seven or more runs allowed, and he may struggle against a Tampa Bay offense that is fifth in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and sixth in OPS in 2026.

The Mets have combined for at least eight runs in four of their last five games, and I actually think their offense has a chance to get to Seymour on Monday.

Seymour ranks in the 71st percentile in expected ERA, but he’s allowed at least three runs in three outings in a row and has a 4.11 ERA in 11 outings since July 1.

I don’t mind a bet on the Rays to win at -170, but I think the OVER is also worth a look given the pitching matchup tonight.

Pick: OVER 8 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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